Nevada represents one of the best value bets in the opening round of the tournament as my data makes them -3 favorites against Texas. Back the Wolfpack.

My data has the slight underdog Wolf Pack beating Texas straight up in nearly two-thirds of simulations for their meeting Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Nevada, the Mountain West regular-season champion, has been beset by injuries and was upset by San Diego State in the conference tournament. Still, the Wolf Pack have a solid starting five and a high-powered offense. Texas has been shorthanded much of the year for various reasons, but the Longhorns have used a stingy defense to carry them. But my data likes Nevada's offense to prevail.

The money-line price tells the entire story here with the lower seed being a slight favorite, but it should be higher. Texas should be closer to -3.5, meaning a money-line around -165 is probably the proper price. The Longhorns defense, which averages five blocked shots a game, should give Nevada some problems. Nevada has been under-performing the past two weeks going 1-5 ATS, which included getting run out of the gym in the MWC Final, their biggest game of the season. The Wolfpack played two Big 12 teams this season -- Texas Tech and TCU -- and lost both. The Longhorns are cheap here and get the win.