Both teams got beat in the first round last season, and K-State Coach Bruce Weber hasn't gotten to the round of 32 in his previous five years in Manhattan. But I like the way the Wildcats closed out the season, going 5-3 straight-up and against the spread, while Creighton seemed to run out of gas, losing six of its last 10 and 2-7 ATS in its last nine. One of those Bluejays wins came against Bemedji State. Creighton is amazing at home but not so hot on the road, going 4-10 ATS while allowing 48.8 percent shooting. I'm looking for K-State to out-hustle and out-scrap Creighton for the win.

All things being equal -- and there’s a lot of equality about these teams --offense sightly trumps defense in the NCAA Tournament. Creighton ranks 24th for offensive efficiency in the Pomeroy Ratings, 38 slots ahead of Kansas State. The Wildcats expect back their top scorers, F Dean Wade (foot) and G Barry Brown (eye), after each missed all or part of the last game. Neither is likely to play in optimum shape, with Wade’s condition mitigating what would have been a distinct advantage for K-State in the paint.

My projections see Creighton defeating Kansas State by at least five points Friday in their NCAA Tournament first-round meetings. The Bluejays also are winning the matchup in 68 percent of simulations. Creighton is 7-2 ATS in its last nine against Big 12 opponents, and also 32-12 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss.