Sebastian Aho led Carolina with 80 regular-season points and has 10 in these playoffs after two assists in Saturday's wild double-OT loss. The Hurricanes haven't had any trouble scoring in this series, they just can't stop Vegas. Aho has at least a point in four of his past five to become the fifth player in NHL history to record eight consecutive 10-point postseasons at any point in their career. Our model essentially gives him a team-best 93% chance of a point.

Historically, teams that lose in double overtime in the Stanley Cup Finals often rebound strongly in subsequent games, making them favorable betting options—a system that has proven profitable for decades. Conversely, it’s often wise to fade teams when a player scores a natural hat trick (three goals in a single period). The Hurricanes have proved resilience all season, posting a 22-6-3 record after a loss, including 2-0 in the postseason. Carolina is 9-4 with two days of rest this season, compared to Vegas’s 5-6 record in the same scenario. Additionally, the Golden Knights lead the playoffs in both hits given and hits taken. Combined with the emotional high of their game three victory, this physical toll makes me think that Carolina will bounce back.