It sure doesn't feel great taking the Bills knowing that, on any given Sunday, Josh Allen can implode into a turnover-prone joke. And yet, even despite Allen's maddening inconsistency, Buffalo presents as a far better team on both sides of the ball. What Washington perhaps does best is rush the passer, yet the Bills are strong up front, which should give Allen time to it his receivers and tight ends deep. Buffalo also has the chops to confuse Sam Howell defensively. There is surely another hiccup coming for the Bills, but it doesn't look like it will be this week.

The Commanders are off to a 2-0 start, but they barely squeezed past the dreadful Cardinals in Week 1 and had plenty of breaks to stave off Denver last week. The Bills' blowout of Las Vegas last week doesn't necessarily mean they have cured all their problems, but they should have enough of a firepower edge to pull away in this one.

On paper it seems attractive to grab an undefeated home team getting nearly a touchdown. But the pivotal matchup is likely to be the Bills' defense versus Sam Howell. Howell made some big-time throws at Denver, but he continues to hold the ball too long. He's taken 10 sacks and is facing a stingy pass defense that's completely healthy. Look for Josh Allen to improve to 24-13-2 ATS on the road in his career.

This is Brian Robinson's backfield. He has hit this over in 9 of his last 10 games. Antonio Gibson has become less of a factor on the ground with only 5 carries on the season. Robinson is probable for at least 57% of the rushing yards for Washington, which should but him at 60 yards minimum against this Bills defense that allowed 105 yards on the ground last season. The Model projects Robinsons to have 64 yards. Look for him to get plenty of action on Sunday.

Through two weeks, Diggs has received 20 targets and caught 17 of them for an impressive 85% catch rate from Josh Allen. He has the 6th highest first read share (Allen looks to him immediately) and is Buffalo's primary deep threat as evidenced by his 35 lengthy targets last season. A seven catch, 75 yard game seems like a good floor for Diggs, who easily could top the 100 yard mark for the second time this season.