Nico Collins is set to serve as the No.1 option in the Houston Texans' new-look passing attack. We got a brief glimpse of what that may look like Weeks 10-12 last season, when Brandin Cooks was on the shelf and Collins averaged 5.3 receptions, 8.6 targets, and 47 receiving yards per game. John Metchie has been ruled out for Week 1, leaving rookie Tank Dell and Robert Woods as the other WRs vying for targets. The Ravens will be without All-Pro CB Marlon Humphrey and had suspect depth behind Humphrey to begin with. I expect Collins to get 8-10 targets Sunday.

The Texans gave up 170.2 yards per game on the ground last season and while they've made some improvements on defense in the offseason, I'm not expecting this unit to be significantly better this fall. It's also a bad formula that they're facing a successful rushing unit like Baltimore's, who averaged 160 ypg last season. Dobbins was over this total in his last five games in 2022 and with Lamar Jackson's dual threat presence back and healthy to start Week 1, I think Dobbins' total ends up closer to 100 yards than 50.

Understandably pricy but I will be shocked if Stroud plays the full way and isn't picked off at least once after how shaky he looked this preseason and with Houston's very banged up offensive line. I'm actually more worried about him getting hurt than not throwing an INT.

During the off-season Ravens HC John Harbaugh proclaimed Dobbins was 100% healthy after suffering a devastating knee injury during the 2021 season. Dobbins certainly appeared healthy at the tail end of the 22 season when he averaged 99 yards on 6.9 YPC over the final four games. The Ravens will face a Texans team that gave up the most rushing yards to opposing RBs by a significant margin. Dobbins sits atop the Ravens depth chart and has minimal competition behind him, I expect 15+ touches in a great week 1 matchup.

Don't often bet NFL spreads this high so I'll play a bit less, but now that it dipped under double digits we'll play. Houston is down three offensive line starters due to injury. A few defensive starters are iffy. Rookie QB CJ Stroud was really inconsistent in the preseason. Ravens Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews returned to practice Wednesday and should be good to go.

The Ravens do a fantastic job in season openers since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB in 2019. When you combine that, with the element of the unknown of their new offense, and the fact that they are facing a rookie QB in CJ Stroud, it could be an easy spot to cover this double-digit spread.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson scored his mega-contract and can now concentrate on scoring points for his team. With incoming veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers aboard, there are no excuses. Look for new O.C. Todd Monken to balance out the play-calling with more passes -- which should mean more snaps for Jackson. Three detections from Baltimore's defense enhances the chances of an Over. Offensively challenged Houston likely won't score much but doesn't need to.

The Texans relied heavily on their first-string players in the preseason, while the Ravens did not. This is significant because Baltimore is adjusting to a new offensive scheme. Houston's defense should be better than average at the beginning of the season. Last year, the Ravens went 0-2 SU and ATS before playing the Bengals, and they have playoff revenge against Cincinnati in Week 2. It is advisable to bet on teams that did not make the playoffs against those that did in Week 1. The Ravens are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the road dog and the generous 10 points.