This is almost a bad situation to be in if you're a head coach: rookie QB combined with a road playoff start. My guess is that the Dolphins will want to shrink the ball game, as much as the Bills will want to take care of business quickly and move on to next week as healthy as possible. I am not afraid of a backdoor cover type situation, as the Phins offense will struggle throughout the game to sustain drives against the Bills, and it'll take the Bills giving up points themselves in order for that to happen.

We saw all throughout the season that the Dolphins are able to rely on their run game to, at worst, keep the offense on pace. When you coupled that with the fact that rookie QB Skylar Thompson will be starting in this playoff game, the best way to keep this one close is to lean in on what you do well. Plus, some one like Jeff Wilson has the explosiveness to rip off chunk runs, which makes this prop even more enticing.

With Skylar Thompson under center, I already faded Tyreek Hill's receiving yards. I tend to think very short throws for the seventh-round rookie. Gesicki was targeted six times and had four catches for 46 yards last week with Thompson under center vs. the Jets. No reason that can't happen again.

The Dolphins are rolling with Skylar Thompson at QB, and he's had an eye for Gesicki the last two weeks, including targeting him four times on the final drive in relief in Week 17 and hitting him four times on six targets last week. In Thompson's previous start, Gesicki was also a major part of the gameplan, catching six of seven targets. I believe Mike McDaniel plans on getting him the ball in this one with the excellent Bills corners focusing on slowing the Miami receivers, and Gesicki should get to at least 20 receiving yards in this game.

Obviously Hill is capable of going over on one play, but he clearly isn't 100 percent with an ankle injury and was a non-factor in Week 18 with Skylar Thompson under center. I'm not sure the Fins will let Thompson throw much downfield at all. If this were total yards from scrimmage I might go over as Miami no doubt will try some jet sweeps, etc.

Both regular-season meetings were thrillers, but this one likely won't be unless Miami has a significant edge in turnovers. The Dolphins are starting 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson. With him on the field, Miami averages 2.2 fewer yards per play than with Tua Tagovailoa. The bleak injury situation doesn't end there -Miami also will apparently be without both starting offensive tackles, its lead running back, two of its top three corners, a starting defensive end and a starting safety. Lay the points.

This is an auto bet for me considering Knox has 100% route participation in a Josh Allen led offense. He has also emerged as one of Allen's primary targets down the stretch. Knox has scored touchdowns in four consecutive games and has been the second most targeted Bill over that sample as well. This spot also doubles as a great matchup as the Dolphins have surrendered the eighth most yards to opposing tight ends this season. Miami is ranked 30th in DVOA to the position and are one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. Knox reeled in six receptions for a season high 98 receiving yards the last time these teams faced each other back in week 15 as well. I'd play this prop up to 33.5.

Skylar Thompson is looking likely to start again for the Fins under center -- Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out. I'm so irked I didn't take Buffalo -9 when I had the chance even 30 minutes ago. This total dropped from 46.5 to 43.5 but I'll still take the under with Thompson as I don't see Miami getting much more than 10 points. The Bills will call off the dogs to stay healthy for the divisional round.