Baltimore is a take at -2.5. The Patriots don't have enough playmakers on the perimeter to take advantage of a vulnerable Baltimore secondary. So long as the Ravens don't self-destruct, they should prevail in this matchup. Baltimore could have a letdown following last week's collapse against Miami, but the edge Lamar Jackson and his playmakers bring is enough to back the small favorite.

The notion that the Patriots under Bill Belichick rarely lose home openers -- as well as games in which they are a home 'dogs -- has nudged the spread below a field goal, which makes Baltimore inviting. New England has scrounged out 24 points in two outings. Baltimore's defense got blitzed in the fourth quarter last Sunday by Miami; in the previous seven quarters, it was lights-out. The Ravens have covered in four straight following an ATS defeat. Lamar Jackson's arm and legs should deliver enough scores to fend off New England and its ailing offense.

Outside of the 4th quarter collapse at home vs Miami last weekend, there was one point in that game in which the Ravens were up 35-14. This is still a very good football team, a team who is explosive offensively. They still have the ability to make this game a track meet and that's not the type of game the Patriots are capable of playing. Plus, I expect the Ravens defense to rebound and respond this week against New England.

It's the Patriots' home opener and they're the far superior defensive team. Look how they controlled high-flying Miami, while the Ravens were helpless against the Dolphins' speed. Remember, in New England's 20-7 Week 1 loss in Miami, the Dolphins scored one touchdown on a fumble return. Lamar Jackson is always liable to go off, but I trust New England to limit his big plays. The rest of the Ravens' running game is in shambles (though J.K. Dobbins may make his season debut). Of Baltimore's 29 running-back carries this season, 16 have gained zero or one yard. I've seen positive signs from New England's offense and believe it comes around Sunday against a depleted Ravens defense.