The Browns are not a team I normally back, but there’s value in this line with the Texans again fooling people into thinking they are competitive. It’s going to be a windy day, which means it’s great that Cleveland has Nick Chubb back to run through one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Baker Mayfield may not have his top target, but he’s got enough to spread the ball around on short passes and take off in the running game if need be. The only thing that gives me pause is that Deshaun Watson can sometimes get things done single-handedly, but the Browns are the right side and have more than enough to win by a touchdown.

Two weeks ago, the windy conditions in Cleveland impacted the passing games of the Raiders and Browns. Sunday is supposed to bring 28 mph winds and rain as the Browns host the Texans. Some of the value has already been squeezed out from the opener, but the total is still six points too high.

It's looking more and more likely that Nick Chubb will be returning to the backfield, which is a significant boost to the team's ground game. The Browns haven't been nearly as effective running the ball with Kareem Hunt as the lead back as they were when Hunt was a secondary punch to Nick Chubb. What isn't as widely-noticed is that Cleveland's also likely to get guard Wyatt Teller back on the offensive line too, and his absence has played a significant role in the drop-off of Cleveland's ground game as well. With both of them likely back, and facing a porous Houston rush defense (28th in DVOA, 23rd in success rate), the Browns offense should have a strong game on Sunday.

QB Baker Mayfield is off the COVID-reserve list. If RB Nick Chubb (knee) returns from a four-game layoff, the Browns will be off and running. They paced the league in rushing until Chubb was shelved. Houston’s RB situation is dicey with David Johnson (concussion) doubtful. The Browns’ line has yielded nary a sack the past three games. The home side is largely healthy after a bye week.

The Texans are getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers for a team that's 1-7 against the spread and hasn't beaten anyone not named the Jaguars. This line indicates these teams are close to even, but it's difficult to see how. The Browns' three losses came to teams that are a combined 19-5, and now they're getting healthier with the return of Nick Chubb and OG Wyatt Teller. Houston ranks 28th against the run. Lay the points.

Coming off their bye, the Browns are on track to get back guard Wyatt Teller, tight end Austin Hooper and running back Nick Chubb versus Houston. The Texans have beaten the Jaguars twice, but no other team. Houston gave up 417 total yards in its narrow win over Jacksonville last week, allowing rookie QB Jake Luton to lead a late TD drive that would have tied the game had the Jags converted the 2-point conversion. Even assuming Bradley Roby returns to bolster Houston's secondary, the Browns should be able to pound the ball against a Texans' defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry. Lay it.

I expect this line to rise so I'm hopping on it now. There's no way these teams are close to even given the Texans struggled to put away an awful Jaguars team last week, while the Browns' losses came once a unique, weather-dominated game and twice on the road against two of the league's best defenses. The Browns already have the coaching edge and also get the extra week to prepare, and their run game should dominate the Texans up front. You always worry about fading Deshaun Watson when he can have a superb game at any time, but the Browns have enough talent up front to harass him enough in this one and prevent a huge performance.