Coming off a bye week looking for its fifth straight win, Minnesota has made me a beleiver. The Vikings' defense is real, and against a Washington team that has not looked impressive since late September, I expect the visitors to pick up a win on Sunday.

The rested Vikings will control this one with their defense, while Washington could come out flat after its emotional win in Seattle. The Redskins have only covered one of their last six home games. Lay the small number.

Minnesota’s rushing defense deserves its No. 3 ranking. That means the Redskins have no choice but to try and travel by air. Good luck with that. The Vikings wield a nasty pass rush, paced by guaranteed one-per-game sacker Everson Griffen. Washington’s O-line is feeble, and usual third-string LT T.J. Clemmings likely will draw the assignment of fending off Griffen. The Redskins might also take the field without Jordan Reed (hamstring). On defense, LB Zach Brown (ankle), the league’s top tackler, could be idled.

The Vikings have a defense that we can fully trust at this point, as they've held six straight opponents to 17 points or fewer. They'll be aided in running that streak to seven by a Redskins offense that is extremely banged up, with 10 offensive players on the final injury report and joined by another four on defense. The Vikings defense ranks third in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush. The Redskins got a huge win in a physical game against the Seahawks last week and are due for a letdown in this spot. Look for the Vikings to focus on high-percentage passes and avoid making mistakes en route to a win.

The first-place Vikings come off a bye and they ride a four-game win streak behind the No. 4-ranked defense that allows just 16.9 ppg. But before we start putting them at a rating level near the Eagles, Rams or Saints, consider that their current streak features modest wins against the Bears, Packers (without Aaron Rodgers), Ravens and Browns. What do all those teams have in common? How about ragged QBs leading lost offenses? Kirk Cousins isn't in that category, his offense averages 22 ppg and his squad is fresh off a huge win at Seattle. One more thing about the Vikings: Case Keenum is the QB and he's on the road where Minnesota has failed to cover this season. The wrong team is favored here. Washington is the play.