DraftKings. Parker Messick has remained under this line in nine of his 13 starts this season. While it’s important to note that he’s been pulled one out short in four of those outings, the Guardians have been careful with their rookie the third time through the order. Messick’s effectiveness takes a hit each time through, leading to an .817 OPS the third time. He’ll face a Yankee lineup that’s paced all of baseball with a .798 OPS against lefties this season, which includes the fourth highest walk rate (a patient approach). Even without Aaron Judge, there are seven Yankees in the lineup today with a wRC+ of at least 100 against southpaws.

Parker Messick has allowed three or more runs only twice this season, and after each of those outings, he rebounded by holding opponents to just one earned run. In one of those games, he surrendered four earned runs. Messick’s advanced profile is highlighted by an elite 108 Location+ rating and an impressive 24% strikeout-to-walk rate, supporting a stable 3.15 expected ERA. His Statcast metrics are notably strong. In contrast, Carlos Rodon’s 2.88 ERA appears poised for regression, as his xERA is nearly a full run higher at 3.95. The Guardians recently saw Rodon just last Thursday in a loss, which could work to their advantage. Meanwhile, the Yankees have yet to face Messick—no player on their roster has ever had an at-bat against him.