If the Packers were playing a generic team with the same statistics as their actual opponent Sunday, Green Bay might be a 12-point home favorite. The Patriots and Bill Belichick are receiving a benefit of the doubt here that they do not deserve. As creative as Belichick has been when dealing with obstacles in the past, those teams were at least good; this one is not. The Pats' lone win this season was by three against dreadful Steelers team. Against teams with actual offenses, they've lost by 13 and 11. And now they see a Packers team with a legitimate homefield advantage and the best running game and defense they've seen so far this season. Oh yeah, and Aaron Rodgers is playing. I'm not concerned about Green Bay's lacking pass catchers; it should have more than enough to win by double digits.

Although many bettors seem willing to lay double figures in points with the Packers, this might not be quite the mismatch it appears at first glance. Green Bay still has limited weapons in the passing game, and the Patriots defense will be determined to stop the run and force long down and distance. New England will use its own run-powered drives to shorten the game and limit possessions. New England outgained Baltimore in a loss last week and held Miami's potent offense to 13 points in the opener (7 came on a defensive TD). Look for an ugly punt-filled festival that ends in a one-score game.

When I saw this line come down, I thought it was tied to the possibility of Mac Jones playing after all. But he's been ruled out and the line hasn't moved. The Packers are finally getting healthy on the O-line with David Bakhtiari off the injury report, and Aaron Rodgers may have found a new go-to receiver in rookie Romeo Doubs. The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the league; throw in Brian Hoyer, who has lost 11 straight starts, and I think this mediocre Patriots team would be catching double-digits if not for the mystique surrounding the head coach. I think the Packers should get an early lead, and I can't see Hoyer keeping his team in the game.