These two teams faced off in Colorado about a week ago with the Rockies winning two of the three games in the series. However, these games are in St. Louis and the Rockies have lost 13 of their last 14 games in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 13-7 since the All-Star break but they are 8-1 at home in that time. The Rockies are 8-16 since the ASB but they are 3-9 on the road. Kyle Freeland was hit hard in his last start against the Cardinals, and he has been very hit or miss all season. Jose Quintana has made two quality starts since coming to the Cardinals including one against the Rockies in Colorado. The Cards have the best wOBA in the league against lefties since the All-Star break. I like the Cards at home at +100 on the run line.

My model says the Rockies cover in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Colorado took two of three from St. Louis at home last week, scoring 29 runs in the series while allowing 20. Rockies OF Charlie Blackmon is 9-for-16 lifetime against Cardinals LHP Jose Quintana, who defeated Colorado last Wednesday but was tagged for six runs in five innings last month while with Pittsburgh and owns a 5.27 career ERA versus the Rockies. Take Colorado +1.5 runs at -135.