At this price, will throw a half down. As Buckets said, Newcastle has very little to care here up 6-1 after the first leg. No reason to press offensively and give Qarabag any good counterattack chances. And I'm not sure Qarabag is good enough to get more than a goal anyways. Maybe the hosts do rest some key offensive guys with essentially little to play for and an important EPL match Saturday. Manager Eddie Howe is expected to and give fringe players some rare European minutes. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.

Are we really going to lay 2.5 goals in a Champions League match? If you watched Newcastle toy with Qarabag last week in Baku, that hardly seems unreasoanble.The 6-1 scoreline could easily have been 10-1, or 11-1, so many times Anthony Gordon (who had four goals, by the way), Harvey Barnes and others seem to be in alone vs. Qarabag keeper Mateusz Kochalski That makes it 12 goals conceded in two Champs League matches in a row by Kochalski (Liverpool got six of its own on January 28), though it's not all his fault. Eddie Howe might be tempted to field a Carabao Cup-like side, but with him feeling a bit of heat, not sure the Toon pulls back. Play Newcastle on Spread

There are a lot of people who watched the first leg, saw seven goals, and are just now going to assume that the second leg will be similar. While this could happen, we have to remember how these two leg matches work. Newcastle will advance as long as they don't lose by five goals. They also don't need to score. If this ends 2-0 Qarabag, Newcastle still advance. Expect Newcastle to rest their good strikers, and for Qarabag to pretty much have given up at this point. I see this being very low scoring with little on the line.