Leipzig have gone 13 games without keeping a clean sheet at home in a Champions League match. On the other hand, they have scored in 16 straight UCL matches at Red Bull Arena. The hosts have conceded at least once in 15 of their past 16 matches overall. They have scored in 13 of their past 14 – at least twice in 11 – and both teams scored in 12 of the 14. Their past four matches have seen 18 total goals. Real Madrid have scored at least twice in eight of their past nine and conceded in seven of those. With both defenses showing cracks, this should be a pretty high-scoring match.

This should be a high-scoring clash between two attacking teams. Real Madrid thrashed Girona 4-0 at the weekend, with Vinícius Junior playing a starring role. However, Los Blancos have major injury problems right now, and their banged-up defense could struggle to contain RB Leipzig. The German team has fired in 28 goals in 11 home games in the Bundesliga this season and has enough firepower to cause plenty of problems for Real Madrid. For more value, opt for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at -120.

A difficult draw is ahead of RB Leipzig, who enter a first-leg matchup against Real Madrid. This matchup is happening at a difficult time for Leipzig as the German side is terribly out of form. Picking up just one win in their last five domestic outings, this side is leaking goals defensively. With the likes of Lois Openda leading the charge for the hosts, this is a team that can put in goals against anyone but defensively is where their issues lie. Players for Real Madrid like Vinicious Jr will rip open the Leipzig defense on the counter. I was shocked the total was set to 2.5 goals, and would have played it at over 3.5 goals.

RB Leipzig know they’ll need a positive result at home against Real Madrid if they want to advance to the next round, which means they’ll be pressing for goals. RB Leipzig have scored two goals in each of their last four games, but they’ve conceded 10 times during that stretch. Real Madrid, meanwhile, have scored two or more in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions, a perfect recipe for Over 2.5 goals.