Inter are one of the most underrated teams in Europe while AC Milan have proven to be defensive cup specialists. The fact that they're fourth in Serie A has overshadowed the fact that they have the best expected goal difference in the league, better even than the Napoli side that clinched the Scudetto last week. Of course AC Milan eliminated that Napoli side in the quarterfinals, behind a strong defensive performance. In that matchup Milan benefitted from Napoli suffering from injuries and suspensions, while in this semifinal it's Milan anxiously awaiting the fitness report on their star, Rafael Leao. Inter are the better team, in better form and despite being "on the road" I expect them to win at San Siro.

There won’t be much of a feeling-out process in this one, given the familiarity between the rivals. Still, both teams will be playing it safe in this first-leg match. AC Milan also could be missing top scorer Rafael Leao, so it should be a low-scoring match. The hosts have seven clean sheets in their past nine at home in all competitions, while Inter have four in their past five overall matches. Inter won the most recent meeting 1-0, and I expect the visitors to get a similar result here.

Inter Milan has been building up impressive momentum ahead of its highly-anticipated showdown with local rival AC Milan in the Champions League semi-finals. The Nerazzurri have eased to victories over Empoli, Juventus, Lazio, Verona and Roma in their last five games, which bodes well for their chances of beating AC Milan. They have a better attacking record and defensive record than Stefano Pioli’s men in Serie A this season. Forwards Lautaro Martínez and Romelu Lukaku are in fine form, Nicoló Barella is pulling the strings in midfield and the defense looks solid. A wager on Inter draw no bet looks very appealing, as AC Milan is unbeaten in eight games, but you can get more value by going for a straight money line win for Inter.

The timing couldn't be much worse for AC Milan. Not only is Inter Milan playing its best soccer of the season coming into the match, but AC Milan will likely be without Rafael Leao for the match. Leao suffered a groin injury against Lazio, and he's tied for the team lead in goals this season. And scoring is something Milan has already struggled with against Inter this year, as it was shutout in two of its three matches against them already.

It's a little bit of juice, but there isn't much to separate these clubs right now. Looking back at their previous knockout-stage matches, both Milan sides played at an extraordinarily slow pace in the first leg. All four of their combined first-leg knockout-stage matches went under 2.5 goals and at least one team failed to score in each one. I'm expecting a tight match here, with neither team wanting to risk conceding early.