The Capitals eliminated the Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs last year. Washington will be playing the second game of back-to-back contests after scoring seven goals (including one empty-net goal) on just 21 shots yesterday (33.3% shooting). They will rely on Charlie Lindgren, who is a notable downgrade from Logan Thompson in goal. Home teams with at least one day of rest are winning at a 60% clip against zero-rest visitors, and this will be Washington's first trip to Canada this season. I like the home team in this spot.

As I write this, Washington is in a terrific back-and-forth high-scoring game on Wednesday night against Edmonton. Montreal is the bellwether franchise in the sport, but playing Connor McDavid and the two-time West champion Oilers at home is a big deal right now -- probably a "premium" priced game if WSH does that. Definitely a "circle" home game. So I think we get a gassed/flat Caps team -- ideally after a 12-round shootout -- and we do get their much worse goalie Thursday in Charlie Lindgren (3.17 GAA). The Habs are slumping but well-rested. Again, it's hockey. If this were the NBA, I'd bet a lot ... and surely be wrong. But it sure all sets up well for the Canadiens at a terrific price.