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Sun 06/19 | 12:00 AM UTC | Denver
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tampa Bay Lightning 65-39, +219 ML
TB +1.5-210
TB +120
Over 6+110
Colorado Avalanche 71-30, +670 ML
COL -1.5+175
COL -140
Under 6-130

Expert Picks

NHL | Tampa Bay 0 @ Colorado 7 | 06/19 | 12:00 AM UTC

Colorado -155

WIN

ANALYSIS: It would be nice to know if Nazem Kadri will return from injury Saturday for Colorado, but I'll just assume not yet. Tampa Bay clearly has the edge in goal with Andrei Vasilevskiy (although he was far from sharp at times in Game 1) over Darcy Kuemper, but I believe Colorado's special teams are much better -- we saw that in the opener as the Avs were 1-for-3 with the man advantage and killed off all three Tampa Bay penalties. The Lightning had major trouble with the Rangers for a while because the Blueshirts were great on the power play. New York ranks No. 1 in these playoffs on the PP at 32.1 percent and Colorado is right behind at 31.3 percent. If the Avs can continue to kill penalties, they are winning the Cup. Honestly, I'll probably just back the home team in every game until given a reason not to. I do like over 6 goals again but probably will bump it down to 5.5 personally.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+597 22-11 IN LAST 33 COL ML PICKS
+1368 40-20 IN LAST 60 TB ML PICKS

Season Splits

65-39, +219 ML
71-30, +670 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
63%
63-37, +164
69-28, +714
71%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
56%
29-22, -104
38-11, +570
77%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
45%
9-11, -80
66-24, +797
73%
When Line was +116 to +146
MONEY LINE
When Line was -168 to -138
50%
3-3, +103
12-2, +578
85%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
42%
8-11, -176
38-11, +570
77%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
52%
27-24, -135
29-15, +431
65%
vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
58%
14-10, -77
18-5, +473
78%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
59%
52-35, -394
61-25, +581
70%
vs COL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TB
0%
0-3, -300
3-0, +247
100%
when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Darcy Kuemper starts
64%
52-29, +383
49-19, +747
72%