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    Sun 06/19 | 12:00 AM UTC | Denver
    SpreadMoney Lineo/u
    Tampa Bay Lightning 48-39, -912 ML
    TB +1.5-210
    TB +120
    Over 6+110
    Colorado Avalanche 54-34, +101 ML
    COL -1.5+175
    COL -140
    Under 6-130

    Expert Picks

    NHL | Tampa Bay 0 @ Colorado 7 | 06/19 | 12:00 AM UTC

    Colorado -155

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: It would be nice to know if Nazem Kadri will return from injury Saturday for Colorado, but I'll just assume not yet. Tampa Bay clearly has the edge in goal with Andrei Vasilevskiy (although he was far from sharp at times in Game 1) over Darcy Kuemper, but I believe Colorado's special teams are much better -- we saw that in the opener as the Avs were 1-for-3 with the man advantage and killed off all three Tampa Bay penalties. The Lightning had major trouble with the Rangers for a while because the Blueshirts were great on the power play. New York ranks No. 1 in these playoffs on the PP at 32.1 percent and Colorado is right behind at 31.3 percent. If the Avs can continue to kill penalties, they are winning the Cup. Honestly, I'll probably just back the home team in every game until given a reason not to. I do like over 6 goals again but probably will bump it down to 5.5 personally.

    author-image

    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays
    +1091 49-27 IN LAST 76 TB ML PICKS

    Season Splits

    48-39, -912 ML
    54-34, +101 ML
    All Games
    ALL
    All Games
    63%
    63-37, +164
    69-28, +714
    71%
    On Road
    LOCATION
    At Home
    56%
    29-22, -104
    38-11, +570
    77%
    As Underdog or Even
    STATUS
    As Favorite
    45%
    9-11, -80
    66-24, +797
    73%
    When Line was +116 to +146
    MONEY LINE
    When Line was -168 to -138
    50%
    3-3, +103
    12-2, +578
    85%
    As Road Underdog
    LOCATION & STATUS
    As Home Favorite
    42%
    8-11, -176
    38-11, +570
    77%
    vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
    OPP WIN%
    vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
    52%
    27-24, -135
    29-15, +431
    65%
    vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
    OPP DEFENSE
    vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
    58%
    14-10, -77
    18-5, +473
    78%
    After a Day Off
    REST
    After a Day Off
    59%
    52-35, -394
    61-25, +581
    70%
    vs COL
    HEAD TO HEAD
    vs TB
    0%
    0-3, -300
    3-0, +247
    100%
    when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
    PROJECTED STARTER
    when Darcy Kuemper starts
    64%
    52-29, +383
    49-19, +747
    72%