The Rangers have won all three games against the Lightning this season, despite getting out-shot in each time. Tampa Bay started G Brian Elliot in one of the losses. New York owns a -92 shot differential in the postseason, which ranks dead last after posting a -136 shot differential in the regular season. I think the Lightning have extra motivation in this fist game after losing all three previous games. The Rangers are coming off a grueling 7-game series against Carolina and will now play with a short turnaround (just one day). Seems like a tough spot to me. Tampa Bay is 7-2 when playing with three or more days rest. Take the Lightning in Game 1 -- and to win the series.

This is the whole rust vs. rest argument. Tampa Bay hasn't played since May 23, so did it lose all the momentum it had from sweeping out the Panthers? I think maybe. New York, meanwhile, has lost just once at home in these playoffs and Igor Shesterkin was 3-0 with a 1.30 GAA vs. the Lightning during the regular season. Sounds like the Bolts again are without Brayden Point, the playoff goals leader the previous two postseasons. New York has been fantastic with the man advantage in the playoffs. Probably going to play an alt total of Under 6.5 as well.