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Thu 07/08 | 12:00 AM UTC | Tampa
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Montreal Canadiens 37-40, -103 ML
MON +1.5
MON +220
Over 5
Tampa Bay Lightning 51-27, +189 ML
TB -1.5
TB -250
Under 5

Expert Picks

Montreal 0 @ Tampa Bay 1 | 07/08 | 12:00 AM UTC

Montreal +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: The first one-goal game of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final was Game 4 in Montreal, which the Canadiens won 3-2 in overtime. Nearly 65 percent of my model simulations forecast Montreal covering the +1.5 puckline (-145) as the Final returns to Tampa for Game 5 with the Lightning trying again to finish things off.

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Stephen Oh

Data Scientist
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 MON ATS PICKS
+82 2-1 IN LAST 3 TB ATS PICKS

Season Splits

37-40, -103 ML
51-27, +189 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
48%
37-40, -105
51-27, +184
65%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
46%
18-21, +20
29-10, +472
74%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
48%
19-20, +715
48-25, +102
65%
When Line was +205 to +235
MONEY LINE
When Line was -265 to -235
66%
2-1, +325
4-1, +56
80%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
48%
12-13, +449
29-10, +472
74%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 45-55% of Games
46%
20-23, +429
11-3, +285
78%
vs Teams Allowing <2.6 GPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
58%
10-7, +945
21-11, +262
65%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
50%
32-32, +384
46-23, +291
66%
vs TB
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MON
25%
1-3, -160
3-1, +80
75%
when Carey Price starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
54%
25-21, +736
46-18, +811
71%