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Thu 07/01 | 12:00 AM UTC | Tampa
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Montreal Canadiens 36-38, -43 ML
MON +1.5
MON +180
Over 5
Tampa Bay Lightning 49-26, +159 ML
TB -1.5
TB -210
Under 5

Expert Picks

Montreal 1 @ Tampa Bay 3 | 07/01 | 12:00 AM UTC

UNDER 5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Still pretty irked that Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final went Over 5.5 goals with the Bolts winning 5-1 -- it was 2-1 through two periods and the sixth goal came with about 90 seconds left. Montreal netminder Carey Price will not be that shaky again. He hadn't allowed more than four goals in a game in these playoffs and last time Price did give up four, he didn't surrender more than two in five straight outings after. The Under is 7-1-2 in Tampa's past 10 after a win -- I actually dislike this total sitting right on five goals due to the very likely push factor, but I don't have the option of doing an alternate total of Under 5.5 goals via our picks yet (recommend you do).

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1578 176-116 IN LAST 292 NHL PICKS
+230 5-2 IN LAST 7 MON O/U PICKS

Season Splits

36-38, -43 ML
49-26, +159 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
48%
36-38, -45
49-26, +154
65%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
47%
18-20, +120
28-10, +422
73%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
50%
18-18, +775
46-24, +72
65%
When Line was +160 to +190
MONEY LINE
When Line was -215 to -185
42%
3-4, +140
9-2, +258
81%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
12-12, +549
28-10, +422
73%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 45-55% of Games
47%
19-21, +489
9-2, +255
81%
vs Teams Allowing <2.6 GPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
64%
9-5, +1005
19-10, +232
65%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
50%
31-30, +444
44-22, +261
66%
vs TB
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MON
0%
0-1, -100
1-0, +50
100%
when Carey Price starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
55%
24-19, +796
44-17, +781
72%