Toronto is 4-2 against Edmonton this season, including two straight shutouts this past Saturday and again on Monday. It's very difficult to defeat a team in three straight games. The Oilers outshot the Maple Leafs in both games by a combined 61-52 margin. Toronto is playing without its leading scorer and top goalie. Edmonton has outshot Toronto in five of the six meetings this season.

These clubs have played back-to-back games in Edmonton, and the Leafs won 4-0 and 3-0. My model thus sees this big total of 6.5 goals for Wednesday as too high with better than 60 percent of simulations landing Under.