Well, the ESPN guys got it right over the weekend. Tom Brady officially announced his retirement from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this morning on an Instagram post. That doesn't mean TB12 can't change his mind and we don't know whom the Bucs' starting QB will be Week 1 of the 2022 season – here are early odds on that – but the SportsLine Projection Model would have severely downgraded Tampa Bay this season without him to where the Bucs were basically the Minnesota Vikings.
"I have always believed the sport of football is an "all-in" proposition – if a 100% competitive commitment isn't there, you won't succeed and success is what I love so much about our game," Brady wrote in an Instagram post. "There is a physical, mental, and emotional challenge EVERY single day that has allowed me to maximize my highest potential. And I have tried my very best these past 22 years. There are no shortcuts to success on the field or in life. …
"This is difficult for me to write, but here it goes: I am not going to make that competitive commitment anymore. I have loved my NFL career, and now it is time to focus my time and energy on other things that require my attention."
The timing of this is a bit odd because Monday, Brady said he was still going through the process and hadn't made a decision, but perhaps he didn't want this hanging over Super Bowl 56 for two weeks. Brady finishes his career with a record seven Super Bowl rings and three NFL MVP Awards during his 22 seasons with the Patriots (20) and Bucs (2). His five Super Bowl MVP Awards are a record as are his 15 Pro Bowls (he won't be playing in Sunday's game), 243 wins, 84,520 passing yards and 624 passing TDs.
It's not like the 44-year-old's play slipped this season as he led the NFL with 5,316 yards passing (career high) and 43 TDs. Brady may finish as high as second in the MVP voting behind expected winner Aaron Rodgers. No quarterback has ever started an NFL game at 45 years old.
Caesars Sportsbook had listed the Bucs as +1400 fifth favorites to win Super Bowl 57, but those odds should get much longer without Brady -- maybe not immediately as books could be skeptical this decision is final. Plus, it will depend on Tampa Bay's 2022 starter.
The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) re-ran Bucs 2021 sims without Brady. They dropped from 11.1 wins to 8.0 without TB12 and from 88.2 percent of making the playoffs to 27.5 percent. To win a title? Basically nil at 0.3 percent. One can expect similar numbers for next season.
| TAMPA BAY | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Tom Brady | 11.1 | 65.10% | 69.00% | 88.20% | 26.20% | 13.20% |
| w/o Tom Brady | 8 | 47.10% | 6.00% | 27.50% | 1.00% | 0.30% |
| Difference | -3.1 | -18.00% | -63.00% | -60.70% | -25.20% | -12.90% |
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