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Steelers vs. Browns NFL Week 11 odds: Deshaun Watson out for season as spread, total tumble; model drops Cleveland's playoff chances by nearly 22 percent

Cleveland will have to start PJ Walker on Sunday vs. Pittsburgh with Deshaun Watson shelved.

Major NFL news broke early this Wednesday morning when the Cleveland Browns announced that starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who lead a huge comeback win in Baltimore on Sunday, will miss the rest of the season as he needs surgery on a broken bone in his throwing shoulder. With PJ Walker set to start Sunday's big AFC North home game vs. Pittsburgh, the spread has generally dropped from Browns -4 to -2 and the total from 36.5 to 34.5. The SportsLine Projection Model has severely downgraded the Browns for the season.

Watson reportedly suffered a displaced fracture in his right glenoid in his shoulder in the first quarter Sunday in Baltimore yet played through it. He led a comeback from a 31-17 defecit in the fourth quarter for the 33-31 victory. The Ravens (7-3) would have been in full command of the division with a victory but are now tied in the loss column with second-place Cleveland and Pittsburgh (both 6-3). Watson threw for 213 yards with a touchdown and a pick and rushed for 37 yards.

Statistically, he has not been great in his first full season as the Cleveland starter with a 61.4% completion rate, 1,115 yards, seven TDs and four picks in six games for a rating of 84.3. But the team is 5-1 in games he's played, including one early last month in Indianapolis in which he was forced out early.

Walker, the former XFL star, takes over under center with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson presumably serving as his No. 2, although it now seems likely a veteran will be added. Walker is 5-4 in his career as a starter and 1-1 this year with Cleveland. The Browns upset visiting San Francisco 19-17 in Week 6 with Walker under center, but the win was in spite of him as he threw two picks. The defense won that game. He also started Week 8 in Seattle, a 24-20 loss, and had two more picks.

In Week 7 at the Colts, Watson technically started but left in the first quarter injured. Walker helped captain a 39-38 win, but, again, did not have good numbers. Walker was 15-of-32 for 178 yards and a pick. Overall, Walker is completing just 49% of his passes for 618 yards, one TD and five picks this season for a rating of 51.3 that is by far last in the league. Update: In a surprise, Thompson-Robinson will start; that hasn't really changed any numbers. 

The sportsbooks are still recalculating some Browns futures odds with this news, but we have seen them move from +235 to win the AFC North to +500 and from +2500 to win the Super Bowl to +4500. Cleveland is one of four active franchises to never play in a Super Bowl. 

The SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded the Browns from 10.7 wins to 9.9 and their odds of making the playoffs from 85.2% to 63.5%. Before this news, the model also gave the AFC North an 8.8% shot of making history by having all four teams make the playoffs, but that's down to 7.0%. It still has Cleveland with the second-most wins in the division thanks to the team's stellar defense. 

CLEVELANDWINSWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFFCONFCHAMP
w/ Watson Healthy10.762.90%32.20%85.20%9.40%3.90%
Watson out for Season9.958.20%15.30%63.50%3.50%1.10%
Difference-0.8-4.70%-16.90%-21.70%-5.90%-2.80%
BEFORE INJURYWINSWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFF
Baltimore11.265.90%41.70%92.50%
Cleveland10.762.90%32.20%85.20%
Pittsburgh9.757.10%17.90%57.90%
Cincinnati9.555.90%8.40%45.00%
All Four Make Playoff 8.8% 
 
 
AFTER INJURYWINSWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFF
Baltimore11.265.9%50.1%92.5%
Cleveland9.958.2%15.3%63.5%
Pittsburgh9.857.6%22.8%63.0%
Cincinnati9.656.5%15.3%48.6%
All Four Make Playoff 7.0%

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Matt Severance
Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays

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