Julio Jones Seahawks trade odds, forecast: Seattle still not NFC West betting favorite with addition of Falcons receiver

Could the Seattle Seahawks swoop in and trade for Falcons Pro Bowl wideout Julio Jones?
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So let's see, over the weekend there was an ESPN report that the Seattle Seahawks were talking with the Atlanta Falcons about a trade for future Hall of Fame receiver Julio Jones. Then, Pro Football Talk reported the Tennessee Titans were the favorites to land Jones. Not to be outdone, Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer mentioned the Super Bowl-favored Kansas City Chiefs as a possibility (that would be almost unfair). Expect Jones to be traded as soon as Wednesday (things open up financially on June 2 around the NFL) somewhere; today, we will focus on his potential impact in Seattle via the SportsLine Projection Model.

This writer rather doubts that Jones ends up in the Pacific Northwest. Receiver isn't a huge position of need for the Seahawks with an excellent 1-2 punch of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They each had 10 touchdown receptions and more than 1,000 yards receiving last season.

Seattle doesn't have a ton of cap space, either, and wouldn't that be better spent on protecting Russell Wilson up front? Wilson reportedly does want the team to get Jones, and the Seahawks surely want to make Wilson happy after his comments this offseason about tiring of getting battered every game and not having a say in the offensive play-calling.

If Atlanta truly does have a first-round pick offer for Jones as has been rumored, it won't be from Seattle in the 2022 draft because the Seahawks dealt that away in the Jamal Adams trade. The Falcons also prefer not to trade him in the NFC. For what it's worth, Seattle and Atlanta don't play this season.

After trading for QB Matthew Stafford this offseason, the Rams are +180 favorites at William Hill Sportsbook to win the NFC West followed by San Francisco at +200 and Seattle at +280. The Seahawks are defending division champions but were upset at home in the wild-card round by the Rams

The SportsLine Projection Model (see below) forecasts a Jones addition to bump the Seahawks from 9.2 wins to 9.7 – William Hill gives Seattle an Over/Under of 10 victories currently with the Under a -140 favorite. The model has the Rams, meanwhile, winning 10.5 games and with a 44 percent chance of winning the division – Los Angeles has even been mentioned as a potential Jones suitor (although reportedly not any longer).

To win the division, Seattle goes from an 18.9 percent chance to 24.7 percent (essentially +300) with Jones and the team's overall playoff chances rise from 51.5 percent to 60.5 percent.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Julio Jones' next team

  • Titans +200
  • Patriots +300
  • Seahawks +300
  • 49ers +500
  • Ravens +600
  • Raiders +700
  • Packers +900
  • Colts +1000
  • Chargers +1200
  • Washington +1300
  • Dolphins +1400
  • Jaguars +1500
  • Rams +1800
  • Cowboys +2000
  • Chiefs +2000
SEATTLE                   WIN     WIN%        DIVISION      PLAYOFF      CONF       CHAMP
Current Forecast 9.2 54.10% 18.90% 51.10% 6.70% 2.90%
w/ Julio Jones 9.7 57.10% 24.70% 60.50% 10.40% 5.00%
Difference 0.5 2.90% 5.80% 9.40% 3.70% 2.10%

Where does every player appear in our 2021 Fantasy football rankings? And which rookie quarterback will provide shocking value? Join SportsLine right now to get 2021 Fantasy football rankings, all from the model that simulated the entire season 10,000 times.

Matt Severance
Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays