Fourth-and-15 onside kick alternative to be voted on by NFL owners Thursday

The Alliance of American Football was a major bust, but it provided at least one unique idea that has caught the eye of the NFL: A fourth-and-15 offensive play as an alternative to onside kicks. NFL owners will decide that potential rule change's fate in a virtual meeting Thursday.

With the new kickoff safety rules in the NFL, onside kicks rarely work these days. In fact, only eight of 63 (12.7 percent) attempts in the league were recovered last year and two of those were by the Atlanta Falcons courtesy of kicker Younghoe Koo. That's 25 percent of the entire total, and Koo had two successful onside kicks called back due to penalty.

Under this new rule, "kicking" teams can instead attempt a fourth-and-15 offensive play from their own 25-yard line. Should that be successful (even if via penalty), the team keeps the ball. If not, the opposing team would take over at the spot of the ball. A total of seven fourth-down plays of at least 15 yards to go were attempted a year ago in the league. Two were converted for a percentage of 28.6.

The NFL has tweaked the proposed onside kick alternative rule ahead of Thursday's vote, too: The fourth-and-15 try would be an untimed down and it can be used twice in regulation but not in overtime. It doesn't matter if a team is leading or trailing when trying it.

Why does the untimed down matter? The first proposal was for the clock to start on the snap and run as it would on a normal play. However, if a team took a lead with just a few seconds remaining, that club would likely try the fourth-and-15 play and simply have the QB run around until time ran out to clinch the win. Patrick Mahomes did something similar in the Super Bowl.

WHAT 2020 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPER SHOULD YOU SNATCH IN YOUR DRAFT? AND WHICH WR1 CANDIDATE CAN YOU WAIT ON UNTIL LATE? JOIN SPORTSLINE NOW TO GET 2020 FANTASY FOOTBALL CHEAT SHEETS FROM THE MODEL THAT WAS ALL OVER DERRICK HENRY'S HUGE SEASON, AND FIND OUT.  

A similar rule was voted on last year and turned down by owners, but the league did try it out during the Pro Bowl. Rule-change propositions must receive a super-majority among owners, 24 out of 32, to pass.

This rule change might benefit the Chiefs more than any team, at least on the surface, thanks to Mahomes. Kansas City didn't attempt any fourth-down plays of 15 or more yards last season. However, on third-down plays of 15 yards or longer, Mahomes was 12-of-16 for 255 yards and three touchdowns.

He hit Tyreek Hill for a crucial 44-yard gain on third-and-15 midway through the fourth quarter of February's Super Bowl comeback win over the 49ers. Kansas City is a +400 favorite on the moneyline odds to repeat in Super Bowl 55 on Feb. 7, 2021, in Tampa.

NFL owners also will vote Thursday on introducing a full-time "Sky Judge" referee to every officiating crew. Coaches are heavily in favor of the "Sky Judge" and that has a better chance of passing than the onside kick alternative. Both would be on a one-year trial. 

Which teams sail past their projected win totals? What is the SportsLine model's stunning Packers prediction? And how many wins will every NFL team have this season? ... See every projected win total, including the shocking prediction for the Packers, all from an uncanny computer model that crushed its NFL win total picks last year!