The Tennessee Titans have nothing to play for tonight when they host the Dallas Cowboys in the final Thursday night game of the season, so Titans coach Mike Vrabel is resting a ton of starters, including star running back Derrick Henry. News has also emerged that Joshua Dobbs will start at quarterback for Tennessee. The Cowboys opened as 9.5-point favorites at BetMGM but have jumped to -13.5 after taking huge action. There is also big money on Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott to score a touchdown.
Since 2003, double-digit road favorites in the NFL are just 50-71 against the spread (41%), including a 0-5 ATS record this season. Yet 70% of the bets and 81% of the money are on the Cowboys ATS. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 39.5 with 60% of the bets and 52% of the money on the Under. Primetime Unders are 32-19 (63%) this year.
It literally doesn't matter what the Titans (7-8) do tonight, as far as their chances of winning the AFC South go. That will come down to a winner-take-all matchup in Week 18 in Jacksonville (7-8). Henry is officially listed as doubtful with a hip injury but is not expected to go. Hassan Haskins, a rookie fourth-round pick out of Michigan, is in line to carry a heavy load in Henry's place. Haskins is set at over/under 51.5 rushing yards. He has 50 yards on 11 carries all year.
Linebackers Dylan Cole, Zach Cunningham and Bud Dupree, defensive end Jeffery Simmons, safety Amani Hooker, cornerback Josh Thompson, offensive lineman Nicholas Petit-Frere and quarterback Ryan Tannehill are all out. Tannehill is expected to miss the rest of the season but hasn't been put on IR yet. Defensive end Denico Autry and cornerback Kristian Fulton are doubtful.
Rookie quarterback Malik Willis was expected to get his fourth start of the season for Tennessee. The team is 1-2 in his previous three starts and he didn't throw for 100 yards in any of them. Vrabel has instead opted to give Dobbs his first NFL start. The former University of Tennessee star was signed off the Detroit practice squad last week. Dobbs has attempted a total of 17 regular-season passes, all with Pittsburgh and not since 2020.
Dallas is without starting linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and fellow linebacker and one-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons is questionable. Running back Tony Pollard has just been ruled out, which should mean a much bigger workload for Elliott.
The two most-wagered player props at BetMGM are on the former Ohio State star: Elliott to score the game's first touchdown at +400 and an anytime TD at -155. He has a rushing TD in eight straight games and 11 overall this season. Also popular at the book: CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 receiving yards at -115 and Dak Prescott over 0.5 interceptions at -110. Prescott has thrown an interception in five straight games and in seven of his past eight.
Dallas (11-4) has clinched at worst the NFC's top wild-card seed but still has an outside shot of catching the Eagles for the NFC East title. The Cowboys would have to win out and Philadelphia would need to lose out.
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