AFC West 2021 NFL win totals, odds, trends: Bettors very optimistic on Broncos (Aaron Rodgers), Chargers, Chiefs, mixed on Raiders
Let's break down updated NFL betting patterns on win totals in the AFC West.
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At this point, it seems likely that Aaron Rodgers will report to Green Bay Packers training camp late this month and that a potential Rodgers trade to the Denver Broncos will not happen – in 2021, at least. However, that hasn't stopped bettors at William Hill Sportsbook from hammering the Over win total of the Broncos for this season. In the AFC West, players are also crushing Over on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers but sending mixed signals on the Las Vegas Raiders.
William Hill opened the Broncos at 7.5 wins months ago … and then the Rodgers trade rumors started. Bettors tried to get ahead of the game by hammering the Denver Over to the point the total is now at 8.5 victories. Only the Packers' total from 11 to 9.5 has seen a bigger shift in the NFL (obviously for same Rodgers reason). About 73 percent of all money wagered and all tickets sold on the Broncos' total is on the Over.
"Looks like the money's for the Over here," said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. "I guess maybe they're still expecting the Broncos to get Aaron Rodgers. Obviously if they get Rodgers, their number will be a lot higher than 8.5, it would be 10 or so. It might come back down a little if it's close to the season and they don't get him, but I still think they're going to be improved regardless. That number is tricky though just because of the Rodgers rumors."
Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the Kansas City quarterback, the Chiefs have won at least 12 games each regular season and 14 last year. No surprise, then, that they have the highest win total this year at 12.5 – remember, it's now a 17-game season. Perhaps that extra game helps explain why a whopping 95 percent of all money and 84 percent of tickets sold are on the Chiefs' Over. One Colorado bettor is set to win $156,200 if Kansas City gets to at least 13 victories.
"We're high on this Over, all of the money is on the Over," said Bogdanovich. "We opened it this high just because of the [Patrick] Mahomes factor—he's healthy, young and feels like he got embarrassed in the Super Bowl so he has something to prove. The Chiefs have also just been so good over the past few years, so I can see them putting up another stellar year for sure."
If you combine total money wagered and tickets sold, the biggest Over lean in the AFC West is on rising star quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Los Angeles Chargers. A total of 89 percent of money and 88 percent of tickets are on Over 9 victories for new coach Brandon Staley's club.
Finally, how much of a home-field advantage will the Raiders have in Sin City? No one knows yet because they played in front of empty crowds in their debut Las Vegas season (going 2-6 at home compared to 6-2 on the road).
Coach Jon Gruden's team, which also has been rumored in the Rodgers Sweepstakes, has the lowest win total in the division at 7. While 77 percent of tickets sold are on the Over, 63 percent of money wagered is on the Under. The Raiders improved from 4 wins in Gruden's first season to 7 his second to 8 last year.
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