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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
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Plenty to be concerned about with the Eagles: loss of their center plus Jalen Hurts’ knee and passing struggles. Plenty to like about the Commanders behind Jayden Daniels, but Washington has concerns with Daron Payne’s absence hurting its already-poor rushing defense further. Second straight week my pick flipped; transparently, it cost us by 0.5 vs. Rams. I was all-in with the Commanders, but the Eagles’ line-of-scrimmage dominance matters. Dan Quinn takes a lot of fourth-down risks that have mostly paid off. Those become riskier against a Vic Fangio defense with Jake Elliott hot. The December road upset was an outlier with Hurts KO’d and 7 combined turnovers. Eagles led this meeting by 16 with 30 seconds left in Week 11. I will buy -5.5 (-115).

Barkley absolutely torched the Commanders during the regular season, rushing for 296 yards and four touchdowns in two games. As I've mentioned, Daron Payne is out for Washington. I see another big day for Barkley coming on Sunday.
Both of these offenses are explosive, and their defenses have been slightly above average during the postseason. Washington will be without Daron Payne, which I believe will be an issue when trying to defend Saquon Barkley and the Philly rushing attack. On the other side, the Eagles just got carved up by the Rams in the snow in the Divisional round. I see this as a 28-20 type of game in the Eagles' favor.

Jayden Daniels has hurdled this number in five consecutive games, albeit one in overtime. Philly held him to 191 in their first meeting, but the ridiculously gifted rookie slapped the Eagles around with 258 in the sequel. He has attempted 30-plus passes in his last 10 games, not counting the one in which he made a cameo appearance. There is no reason to think the 'Dores will become ground-oriented here. This total is a few yards lower than what other sportsbooks have posted.

This is just a massive value price for the rookie dynamic QB who has hit this mark 10 total times this season, including in both of Washington's playoff victories.
Following consecutive road wins over what had been a red-hot Tampa Bay team and the Super Bowl favorite Lions, there's only one way to play this NFC title game. Take the points with perhaps the most prolific rookie QB in NFL history against an Eagles club that has notched 2 playoff wins but has looked far from impressive in them.
I was hoping to see a 48 pop up, but the line is going in the opposite direction. As impressive as Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense has been, they will now have to face this vaunted Eagles defense for the 3rd time this season. Prior to Washington’s 36-33 comeback victory over Philly in Week 16, the Commanders had 14 points through 3 quarters before the Eagles sustained injuries and faltered. I don’t see this game going similarly. In their first meeting in Week 11, Terry McLaurin was held to just 1 catch for 10 yards. Jalen Hurts’ lingering knee injury may continue to limit his mobility. Philly’s ground-heavy attack will bleed out the clock, and their defense will keep this game Under the total.
Washington has been the popular pick in this spot all week, but I believe the better overall team will win and cover here. I actually give the Commanders the edge at QB with Jalen Hurts hurting, and I trust Dan Quinn more than Nick Sirianni at this point. Washington will be without Daron Payne up front defensively, which is a massive blow when trying to contain Saquon Barkley. The Eagles beat Washington 26-18 when they played at Lincoln Financial Field earlier this year, and I expect a similar score on Sunday.

This price is less than ideal, but I feel pretty good about this bet hitting on Sunday. Smith has recorded four or more catches in seven straight games, and I expect that to continue against a Washington defense that plays a lot of zone coverage. I have Smith projected to finish with at least five catches here.

On paper, this situation can look less than ideal for Smith. In two regular season matchups with the Commanders, the 2020 Heisman winner had 10 catches for 80 yards. That said, Dallas Goedert and A.J. Brown are both banged up, which could result in an increase in targets for Smith. On top of that, I expect Jalen Hurts to rely more on his arm than his legs as he deals with a knee injury suffered last week. I have Smith projected to finish with 5+ receptions for 65+ yards here. Let's also remember, Smith is explosive enough to hit this over in one play.
We know the damage Saquon Barkley caused vs. the Commanders this season and that his presence, plus the addition of vet DC Vic Fangio, might make this Philly side more dangerous than the Super Bowl rep from two years ago. But still not sure if Jalen Hurts is actually at 100%, or close to it, on the Philly side, after the knee injury he suffered late in the Division Round vs. the Rams last week, and downfield passing has been a bit spotty for Philly throughout the playoffs. Washington, playing with house money more than any playoff team we recall since the 2019 Titans, rightfully believes it can win this game, as Jayden Daniels continues his magic that's produced seven straight wins. Play Commanders

DeVonta Smith has seen just four targets in each of the Eagles' playoff games. In the first matchup against Washington -- the one Jalen Hurts started and finished -- Smith amassed 29 yards on four catches. Commanders rookie corner Mike Sainristil has made huge strides late in the season, giving Washington a formidable tandem along with Marshon Lattimore.

DraftKings. I will gladly buy the dip on this Jeremy Chinn line after it opened at 7.5. Chinn is the Commander’s leading tackler so far this post season with 12 and 8 in the two games thus far. As a box safety, I expect him to be directly involved in trying to slow down Saquon Barkley (and Jalen Hurts if he’s running) while also mixing on coverage against Goedert. Against a Jalen Hurts lead offense earlier this season, Chinn compiled 13 combined tackles.

Saquon Barkley has been the most explosive running back in the NFL all season. He has the most touchdown runs in the NFL from outside the red zone (nine). Barkley has the most 50+ yard touchdown runs (six). He has cleared this longest rush number nine times this season. More importantly, against the weak Commanders' run defense, he has long runs of 39 and 68 yards. I love targeting Barkley's longest rush in Sunday's Conference Championship.

Jayden Daniels has thrown for two or more touchdown passes in the last seven full games played. In week 18 he only played the first half. He threw for five touchdown passes against this Eagles defense in week 16. While touchdowns may be hard to come by against this stout Eagles' defense, I believe they'll come in the passing game. So I like getting plus odds for Daniels to throw for two or more touchdown passes.

In the two playoff games Daniels has 47 and 48 pass/run attempts. That's an enormous number which should decrease by 15-20%. Without this outlier number of attempts he will be hard pressed to get over this total.

Yeah, this has some significant juice at -175, but that gives us an implied percentage of 63%. Yet Smith has done this in every game since Thanksgiving. And Washington plays the zone where Smith gets 46% of target share since Thanksgiving. This number won’t last.

Jalen Hurts is wearing a brace on Sunday after hurting his knee in the Divisional Round. I think that will impact his running more than passing against a suspect Washington secondary. Brown has been quiet with just 24 yards in two playoff games. However, he went for 97 and 65 in two games against the Commanders this season. I think Brown wakes up on Sunday.

TE Dallas Goedert has been one of the lone bright spots of the Eagles struggling pass attack. While A.J Brown has been on the sidelines reading self-help books, Goedert has gone over this receiving yards line in 3 straight games, including both playoff matchups. Jalen Hurts has been a bit less mobile following his first concussion, and he desperately needs a reliable middle-of-the-field target. The Commanders rank 26th in the NFL in defending opposing TE’s, so Goedert should have his opportunities when the defense loads up the box to stop Saquon Barkley.

This is just a gargantuan total for Saquon and deservedly so, however I have to fade it almost out of sheer principle. Barkley has had a legit bona fide MVP caliber season and if not for Josh Allen and Lamar having two of the most efficient seasons by QBs in NFL history, I think he would win the award most seasons. This number is also inflated due to Washington being a massive run funnel and struggling against the run, however only 2 RBs (Saquon 2x and Derrick Henry) have eclisped 130 rushing yards against the Commanders this season. Barkley can still have a massive day and stay under this number.
This is the third meeting and familiarity helps the D. Plus pressure is in so teams don’t want to make mistakes early. Add in the fact the Eagles might be carful with a banged up Hurts early and I’ll go under 23.5 in the first half. Nice value price.

FanDuel. With a don’t-hold-back approach in the playoffs, Jayden Daniels has 29 rush attempts in the Commanders two postseason wins. His number has been called on designed runs 9 and 8 times in the two games. He is the Commander’s best runner outside the tackles, and that’s an area I’d expect Washington to exploit (as opposed to up the middle against Jalen Carter).

All it takes is one. Kenny Gainwell hit 10 rushing yards off one carry last week, and I feel confident he'll be good for 1-3 carries again this week. Saquon Barkley will need a breather from carrying the entire city on his back. Gainwell is 10-4 to this over since October 13th, and we are getting a buy low spot since he technically didn't hit his 10.5 line from last week. If there is a team down the stretch to rack up your YPC against, it's Washington.

This is a good one to take if you think the Commanders will lose as Daniels has been far less pass-heavy in Washington's wins (under the line in 10 of 12 wins). It helps that Philadelphia leads the NFL in time of possession and has already owned the rock for at least 33 minutes in each game against D.C. this year. Daniels was way over this in Week 16 against the Eagles and was one attempt shy in Week 11 when he had two pass attempts called off by penalties. The formula is that the Eagles control the clock with Saquon Barkley, and the Eagles defense slams on the run as they do against pretty much everyone, forcing the Commanders to throw.

Ekeler's been a zone-beater on short throws for Washington, a key factor against an Eagles defense that plays a ton of zone coverage. We've seen twice already this year that the Commanders lean on their RBs against the Eagles -- 11 targets in one game, seven in the other, and at least six receptions to RBs in each. Those catches should fall into Ekeler's hands, especially in no-huddle situations. We also know Philadelphia's run defense has been amazing all year -- this is a counter to that which Washington can use. I'm counting on the Commanders not being able to run, opening up chances for Ekeler to be impactful through the air, just as he's been in each playoff game so far.

Devonta Smith is already Philadelphia's playoff receiving yardage leader and he should have another fine game on Sunday afternoon. Washington has played more zone coverage in the playoff and against zone, Smith had a 46% target share between Weeks 12-18. With Dallas Goedert unlikely to be 100%, Smith should have more chances to catch short range passes against the Commanders' secondary.

Austin Ekeler has topped this receiving line in 8 of 14 games this season, including an 8 catch, 89 yard performance vs. the Eagles in Week 11. I believe the Commanders will be in comeback mode against the Eagles so Ekeler should have at least 3-4 catches to hit this mark at the minimum. In two playoff games, he has 26 and 41 yards receiving.
I wanted to wait for 7, and was worried about Jalen Hurts status eventually bringing this number down. Maybe I will regret this but I don't think Hurts does much of anything this week and people eventually come around to how significant this could be, and this gets under 6. I'll grab this now thinking it might be the best this gets.

Technically, Jeremy Chinn is a strong safety. But at 6-3, 220 he plays like a linebacker and is critical in run defense. He's registered 33 tackles in the past three games. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (ankle) will play, but he's not 100 percent and Chinn is one Commander who has to pick up the slack. Chinn made 19 stops in the two matchups vs. Philly, getting 13 in the first and six in the second. I like him to record at least eight combined stops Sunday at plus-money.

Austin Ekeler missed the most recent meeting with the Eagles, but in the first matchup he caught eight of nine targets for 89 yards. The vet has been targeted four times in each playoff game, racking up 26 and 41 receiving yards. I'm expecting Brian Robinson to struggle like he did in the regular-season against Philly (3.78 yards per carry). That should mean more playing time, and opportunities, for Ekeler.

Terry McLaurin has scored in seven of his last eight games and Washington has won the last seven games. The Ohio State veteran is essential to the wide receiver group and the development of Jayden Daniels and he looks like he's got it down. Daniels knows if they have a chance to win it's going to be through McLaurin. He gets a TD in this game.

Terry McLaurin is 64.5 yards over/under for Sunday and has 5.5 for his total receptions, and his anytime touchdown is plus-150 to just do something that has happened the 7 out of his last eight games. Washington can't win without McLaurin having some success so in this spot here I think he's going to get over 60 yards.
On December 22nd, Philadelphia met Washington. The Eagles were up 21-7 after the first quarter and later up 27-14 at the end of the third quarter. However, Washington had a miracle fourth quarter and beat the Eagles 36-33, albeit Kenny Pickett played most at QB. Jayden Daniels threw five touchdown passes that day and was also the leading rusher with 81 yards. Washington hasn't lost since. They've got a seven-game winning streak going and they just knocked off the No. 1 seeded Lions in the NFC. The Eagles were 10-1 at home this season, 16-3 altogether, but Jalen Hurts doesn't look 100%. I haven't seen anything yet from Washington to make me believe they can't win after winning seven straight. Washington gets the money.

The Washington defense will do whatever it can to slow down Saquon Barkley, and one way to help is controlling the clock with Brian Robinson Jr. Washington stays committed to giving Robinson the ball when healthy, and the only three times this year he didn't get to double-digit carries were due to injury or limiting workloads in Week 18. He had 16 carries in the first Eagles game, which was close until the fourth quarter, and 10 in the second with Washington playing from behind. I love getting even odds to get to his typical baseline of 10 carries despite the tough matchup on paper.

Jalen Hurts' health is in question after suffering a knee injury in the win over the Rams, and while I'd be shocked if he misses the game, I do expect his mobility to be impacted. Therefore I want to look at his rushing Unders, and this is the one he has hit most often in regular run of play during the season, failing to record a 12+ yard rush six times. One of those games was his first against Washington, where he 10 times for 39 yards and none longer than nine yards. His rushing yards line of 29.5 is just a little too low for me to play, so I'm opting to attack his props this way instead.

He's back in top form and has been a huge safety valve for Jayden Daniels on the road in his rookie season. I don't think the run game is going to do much, and they are down a starting guard, I suspect they attack the LBs in the screen game. Ekeler is over this in 6 of 8 road games and has at least 20 in the other two. He averages 4 catches for 42 yards on the road. He's over this in 5 of last 6 on the road.
The last meeting between these teams got off on a weird foot, with Washington suffering a rare fourth-down failure on their first drive and losing two fumbles to fall into a hole before eventually winning. The first meeting was a low-scoring chess match before Saquon Barkley took over the in the fourth quarter. Even with two long early TDs against the Rams, the Eagles led by just three at the break, and unless Jalen Hurts' play improves or Jayden Daniels turns into a pumpkin, this should be a similar close game at halftime.

Not planning to play any sides this week as want to enjoy the games, but gadzooks this is a crazy number --- the highest in BetMGM history. I thought 116.5 was too high last week against the Rams and actually Saquon Barkley didn't do much ... except for 78- and 62-yard TD runs. That's obviously tongue in cheek but sort of my point here: If Barkley doesn't blast a long one, it's going to be very tough topping this even if he averaged nearly 150 yards in two RS games vs. Washington. The playoffs are usually different (neither TB's Bucky Irving nor Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs came close to topping this vs. WSH). Our model has Barkley at 120.5 and NumberFire at 113.4.

In his last game against Washington, Dallas Goedert recorded five receptions for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per catch. Goedert's 2024-25 season stats show he averages 11.8 yards per reception, with 42 receptions for 496 yards over 10 games. Goedert has demonstrated the ability to make explosive plays, with six receptions of 20+ yards and two of 40+ yards this season. He's exceeded this number in 7 of his last 10 home games, including four in a row. With Jalen Hurts hobbled, he's less likely to run and more likely to find Goedert as a safety valve. Sam LaPorta had six receptions for 51 yards against this Commanders' defense last week. There are no significant winds in the forecast. My model projects 52.3.

This is no ordinary rookie and I don't see the OL being able to win on the ground against Philadelphia's defense. I expect Kliff Kingsbury to call the game to try to throw to an early lead while riding Daniels' legs, too. They have to keep taking shots to the endzone outside the RZ. Eagles D has been way more suspect lately. Philly won't blitz nearly as much as they did in debacle loss at WSH, but Daniels threw 5 TDs on them that day. They have to go down fighting here and he can get to this defense rolling outside to his right and sucking LBs to him. If Commanders are down big, we probably get one in garbage time too.

They would have had to set this at 12.5 to scare me off from diving in early. Don't get fooled by last week at Detroit, designed runs for Washington RBs vs this defense are going nowhere. Daniels' legs will be imperative. The Eagles will bring more heat, forcing scrambles. Expect more option looks, too. Daniels has at least 9 carries in the last 6 full games he's played and is over this total 4 of 5. He has 29 carries the last two weeks for the Commanders to reach this point and I don't see the script changing on Sunday. No Nakobe Dean could help us here and Eagles could be down some sure-tackling DBs, too.
Through two playoff games, rookie Jayden Daniels has completed 70 percent of his throws, committed zero turnovers and taken one sack. Those were against much worse defenses in Tampa Bay and Detroit, but Daniels already has excelled against Philly's top-ranked unit. On Dec. 22, he threw for five TDs in a 36-33 win over Philly, recording the third-highest EPA the Eagles surrendered all season. Saquon Barkley likely will have another massive game, but with Jalen Hurts (knee) and corner Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder) dealing with injuries, the Commanders should keep this close. Washington has converted an absurd 81 percent of its fourth downs and Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury will continue to coach aggressively given no one expected them to be here.

I am a bit surprised this line isnt in the mid 50's considering AJ Brown is clearly operating at less than 100%. Brown has totaled just 24 yards, 3 receptions, on 10 targets through 2 playoff games. In addition to playing hurt, the Eagles passing offense has not looked functional, particularly throwing downfield. It's also worth noting that the Eagles run the football as effectively as any team in the NFL which has resulted in Jalen Hurts dropping back just 41x through 2 games. The Commanders are also a significant run funnel. This one checks all the boxes for me and I'd play down to 57.5.
Consider this a marker. I have a feeling the more we hear from Jalen Hurts this week, and the more we know about how banged up he really is, this line might move considerably. Commanders are very live to win this game regardless of Hurts' status. The Eagles' D has slipped and if Washington can use its hurry-up pace to throw to a lead and push for points, they can win that style of game. I wonder if Hurts misses practice time and Eagles also have a beat up secondary too. Washington has the better QB and no pressure here. Daniels won't be intimidated going back to Philly. I will make other wagers as this line moves.
Team Injuries

