Sunday night reminded: The better coach and quarterback usually win. Monday night, we have Sam Darnold favored in a playoff game against Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in primetime. McVay and Kevin O'Connell are both 0-1 in the playoffs since 2022, but the Rams surged late this season with a win over the Bills. The Vikings have been mighty impressive outside of Week 18 and an earlier loss in Los Angeles; Stafford threw four TD and Aaron Jones was held to 58 yards that night. The Rams have match-up playmakers, a young defensive front and a massive experience edge. They’re also rested, which should get the offense in gear. Will settle for +2.5 here but plan to buy +3 (-118) with a moneyline sprinkle.

In the 15 games that Williams has played and the Rams have scored a touchdown Williams has the FIRST touchdown in 12 of those 15 games. As we cannot take that on this site I’ll simply grab an any time touchdown.

Teams that play the Minnesota Vikings run less plays than the average. And they pass more than the average. So let’s combine those two statistics and take Kyron Williams under. Nice price

I love T.J. Hockenson in this matchup, but I also love another Vikings option not named Justin Jefferson. Jefferson caught eight of nine targets for 115 yards in the first meeting, so he is sure to draw a ton of defensive attention. Jordan Addison has become a much more important player for Minnesota down the stretch (66 targets the final eight games), and he excels against the zone coverages favored by LA. In perfect indoor conditions, against a weak Rams' secondary, there should be enough passing volume to go around.

Can't say I trust Sam Darnold much, but he was fabulous this season other than when he faced Detroit for the most part. All things equal, I probably would have taken the Rams at home but the Chargers sure didn't look very focused on Saturday in Houston with all that's going on in Los Angeles. I actually do believe the fan support in Phoenix will be more Vikings than Rams -- Arizona is basically Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota West. The Vikes didn't have star TE TJ Hockenson or top linebacker Blake Coleman in the first meeting, their only loss besides the two vs. Detroit. Road favorites are 7-1 ATS in Monday games this season.

Rams +3 popped up for a brief moment. The line shifted back to +2.5 at -102, so you can buy this up to +3 for a good price tag. L.A has a clear rest advantage. They sat their starters in Week 18, while the Vikings were routed by the Lions. Teams that travel after playing Detroit have struggled the following week this season. Sam Darnold’s old flaws may be returning, and this Rams defense has quietly improved throughout the year. Defensive rookie of the year Jared Verse can disrupt Darnold in the pocket, and turn him into an average QB. When these teams met in Week 8, Puka Nacua unexpectedly returned from injury and torched the Vikings secondary. L.A has the weapons to beat Minnesota.

Nobody blitzes more than the Vikes. And on blitz plays Puca is targeted a shocking 45% of the time. So I’ll take a deep breath and go over.

The Rams won the first matchup between these clubs 30-20 behind an efficient offense that scored TDs on all three of its red-zone trips and a 66-50 edge in total plays run. Vikings QB Sam Darnold played reasonably well in throwing for 240 yards and 2 TDS, but he was check-down heavy and deep threat Jordan Addison was a non-factor. Darnold's meltdown last week in the biggest game of the season can't inspire any other position than backing Los Angeles in this spot.

Unders have mostly clicked in Wild Card Weekend and no surprise if this one follows the same. These teams did play a 30-20 game in LA's favor at midseason on October 24 at SoFi Stadium, but there is reason to wonder about the Vikings offense tonight after the clock might have struck midnight for Sam Darnold last week at Detroit, when his performance looked eerily similar to some of his past failures with the Jets and Panthers. Meanwhile, before Sean McVay subbed liberally vs. Seattle, Rams December scorelines became extremely low after that shootout win over the Bills on December 8. LA was 8-4 under into the Seahawks game; Minny 10-7 under this season. Play Vikings-Rams Under (at Glendale, Az)

Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman wears the green dot and doesn't come off the field. He missed the regular-season meeting with the Rams, and Ivan Pace Jr. stepped up with 13 tackles. Now Pace is back to a part-time role. Against a Rams' team that loves to hand the ball to Kyren Williams, look for Cashman to record eight or more combined tackles for the fifth straight game.

Hockenson is now healthy and a huge part of what Minnesota is trying to do on offense. I also think they’re gonna need to get Sam Darnold some confidence early on and that means some short passes which will likely include Hockenson targets. We might cash this in the first half.

I think this is a nice price in good value here. We went a tie. In fact we win a 14-13 or 10-9 deficit. Should be a good field goal kicking environment, so don’t be surprised if we get the extra field goal at the end of the half.

Most places are hanging 9.5 so let’s grab the 7.5. If this gets to 10.5 then I will play that under and try to middle at 9 or 10.

B365 @ -115, DK @ -135. Would bet this up to -140. Vikings safety Camryn Bynum cleared this line in 9/17 games this season. However, the matchup against the Rams presents a solid spot for him to rack up the tackles. The Rams allowed the 8th most tackles to opposing safeties this season (per PFF). And with Puka Nacua active, opposing deep safeties cleared this line in 9/11 games, including Bynum’s 7 combined tackles in Week 8. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, but Matthew Stafford is one of the better QBs against the blitz (66.5% completion was 7th best amongst qualified QBs). Bynum is hardly ever involved in those blitzes - meaning he’ll be relied on, on the back end.

If we throw out facing the Lions, who seem to have his number, Sam Darnold has thrown at least two TD passes in all but three games this season. He got to two TDs in the first quarter of the first meeting with the Rams -- they allowed 29 TD passes this year, among the most in the league.

I don't mind laying the points, but FanDuel is providing a reasonable ML price and I'm going to go with it as I think this game may be quite close. Both of these teams have shown blemishes down the stretch of the season, but I give the Vikings the slight edge from a body of work and talent standpoint. Vikings lost the first matchup, but that was a travel spot on 4 days rest and now they get a neutral site with Blake Cashman and TJ Hockenson in the lineup (they didn't play in the first matchup). I think this Rams offense continues to sputter and we see Darnold and the Vikings offense regress to the mean from last week's performance against the Lions.

Looking at a game of dump off passes here. Detroit passed to Jahmyr Gibbs for a TD and 5 short receiving (31 yards) to save Goff vs the MIN defense and the Rams will look to do the same. While the model doesn't like Kyren Williams rush yards, we do like him to get a few dump off passes from Stafford vs the Vikings who blitz like crazy. While the over is just under 50% since 2023, he has averaged 13.7 yards which is well over this line and history should justify a line of 12.5.

This game was moved to Arizona, but the Vikings have other concerns, as the clock might have struck midnight for Sam Darnold last week at Detroit. It was all too reminiscent of the Darnold from previous years with the Jets and Panthers, and raises some concerns in Vikings camp as Darnold prepares for his first playoff start. Remember, the Rams took a Thursday night verdict (30-20) at SoFi over Minnesota back on October 24, as Matthew Stafford outplayed Darnold when tossing 4 TDs. Also note LA won all five December starts with Stafford at the helm, before bowing the the low-key finale vs. Arizona when Jimmy G was at QB as Sean McVay rested most of his regulars. Play Rams (at Glendale, AZ)

T.J. Hockenson, who missed the regular-season loss to the Rams, should be a big factor Monday. Adjusting for opponents, the Rams have allowed the highest target share to opposing tight ends. Hockenson got eight targets last week but Sam Darnold was highly inaccurate; they connected just twice amid a frenzied Detroit environment. With this game at a neutral site, look for Darnold to find Hockenson at least four times.

I saw Justin Jefferson at 6.5 catches and 89.5 yards for the game and I think he goes over both. He's gone over 6.5 in five of his last six games with the one being the Detroit game where everybody was awful. As far as yards gained, four his last six he's gone over that total and we got one of the shakiest pass defense in the NFL. The Rams had the 26th rated defense allowing 353 yards per game. I think Justin Jefferson is the soul of this game, and of this team, and his plays inspire the team. Jefferson over.

The Vikings went 14-3 this year and covered 11 times winning six games on the road. They'll play the LA Rams who were 10-7 on the year and 9-8 ATS with no edge at home or away with 5 wins each. Minnesota had a nine-game win streak before looking terrible at Detroit. Sam Darnold comes up big in this game. The Vikings are number two in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 93.4 yards per game. They also ranked No. 4 in the NFL in sacks at over 2.9 per game and were No. 1 in interceptions at 24 on the season which is five more than the next team. Vikings to win in Arizona.

One of my favorite bets this season has been Sam Darnold to throw for multiple touchdown scores. That bet was cashed 12 times this season. And Darnold threw for three or more touchdowns six times this season. I like Darnold to bounce back Monday night after a brutal regular-season finale. He threw two touchdowns against the Rams in their first meeting. I like Darnold to throw for multiple touchdown passes again Monday night and I'll sprinkle on his three touchdown passes at plus money as well.

Matt Stafford won a ring pumping all kinds of throws this guy's way all over the field, and especially in the redzone. Kupp has 7 TDs in his last 7 playoff games and after getting torched by Puca Nacua in the first meeting, I suspect Kupp enjoys a little wiggle room here. He and Stafford see the game the same way when things breakdown and it shows up most when the season is on the line.

There is a lot going on with this game, way more than football. Weird prep week for both teams and playing this neutral site is quite different, too. LA has been brutal starting games slowly, environment might be odd and kind of sterile and Sam Darnold might be seeing ghosts in playoff debut after Week 18 ugliness. Both defenses are the better units here. Sean McVay is 7-4 under at home in playoffs (technically this is his home game). Both teams will probably have ample volume in the run game. Rams D invites you to run ball. I don't think we see the 50 points from their first meeting when Rams healthy WRs caught MIN off guard.

This is a huge number for Kyren Williams who has failed to eclipse this line in 9/16 games this season while averaging 19.75 rushing attempts per game. Williams is one of the NFL's few remaining workhorse backs that routinely sees 90-95% of the backfield snaps. With that being said, a lot has to go right in order for Williams to tote the ball 22+ times on Monday. First and foremost Williams needs to stay on the field the entire game, I would also argue that he needs positive gamescript considering he's been held under this line in 5/6 LA losses while averaging only 17 rushing attempts. The Vikings sport the #1 run defense in EPA allowed per rush, and 3rd in success rate.

The Rams have been getting punished by opposing tight ends. T.J. Hockenson could have had a huge game at Detroit last week, but Sam Darnold was off target. Hockenson got eight targets, the most he'd received since Nov. 24. Look for Darnold to be more accurate in a less difficult environment, and for Hockenson to record 50-plus yards.

Rams running back Kyren Williams rushed 23 times for 97 yards in the first meeting with Minnesota. Since then, the Vikings' run defense has deteriorated. They rank 31st in success rate allowed over the past six games and just allowed Detroit to run for 178 yards (5.7 ypc). Blake Corum is out, so Williams should see another massive workload after resting in Week 18.

The Rams were one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends during the regular season, allowing an average of 6.2 receptions and 64.8 yards per game to the position. Eleven tight ends topped 40 yards against the Rams this year. Hockenson had a nightmare game versus Detroit but had gone over this number in three of four before that bad outing by the Vikings' offense. I expect Minnesota's offense to bounce back overall this week. Look for Hockenson to have a big role in a plus matchup.

The Vikings' offense ranks 6th in the league, averaging 237.8 passing yards per game. T.J. Hockenson has received at least five targets in each of the last seven games and has averaged 49.5 receiving yards since returning from injury. With the Rams likely to prioritize containing star receiver Justin Jefferson, Hockenson may encounter more opportunities as a security option for quarterback Sam Darnold. The Rams' defense has been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the fourth most receiving yards at 64.7 per game this season.

Darnold’s passing yard total set at 270.5 seems inflated to me. When these teams met in Week 3, Darnold threw 18/25 for 240 yards in a 30-20 Vikings loss. The Rams secondary has struggled this season, but their defensive front gets great pressure. This Vikings offensive line is really starting to miss LT Christian Darrisaw. Darnold is coming off a rough 18/41 for 166 yards showing against the Lions in Week 18. He may be turning back into his old self. If breakout rookie DE Jared Verse and company can make him uncomfortable in the pocket, he may struggle again. Even against a below average secondary, this line feels too high for Darnold in a road playoff meeting.

It's no surprise the 14-3 Vikings are favored in this game, but I'm going to fade them after their abysmal offensive performance in a playoff environment against a beat-up defense. The Rams won the first meeting between these teams by 10, with Matthew Stafford carving up a Minnesota defense that has played a relatively easy schedule and gotten to play from ahead a lot. With the change in venue, I have Vikings -1.5 as my line and think there's solid value backing the Rams, but wait to see if you can get a +3.