Time to pad the stats vs the Rams backups. Hawks rookie coach wants to end season with a win and Geno has $6M in incentives he is chasing and he's better on the road than at home. He threw for 3 TD passes vs Rams earlier this season and did is in 2022 vs them as well. Seattle run game has all kinds of issues and Rams resting best players and Geno has a full array of pass catchers to target. Great spot for him.

Smith-Njigba is 6 catches away from breaking Tyler Lockett’s Seahawks franchise record for receptions in a season. His Over 5.5 receptions has a ton of juice (-165 on DK) so I’ll play his yards prop instead. JSN has averaged 11.7 yards per catch this season, so assuming Geno Smith feeds him volume knowing what’s at stake, I see him clearing this mark easily. The Seahawks have made it clear that despite being eliminated from the playoffs, they will be playing this Week 18 game with full effort. I like JSN to finish his pro-bowl worthy season strong.

Jimmy Garoppolo is back! He hasn't taken a snap all season (not even the preseason) but with the Rams resting starters on Sunday that means no Matthew Stafford...and Jimmy G in the lineup. He hasn't played since October 30 of 2023 while with the Raiders in a loss at Detroit (save a couple of snaps vs. Denver in the finale), as this has all the earmarks of a very flat Rams effort on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are more motivated by personal factors this week, such as QB Geno Smith within reach of several contract incentives, which can be a powerful motivating force. Seattle seems like it's playing to win, while a big Rams drop-off with Jimmy G wouldn't surprise. Play Seahawks

Geno Smith is 185 yards shy of a 2 million dollar contract bonus, in addition to heading into the final year of a 75 million dollar contract. Seattle can save a whopping 25 million by cutting or trading Smith ahead next season. Smith can actually earn a total of 6 million dollars based on how her performs Sunday against the Rams backups. Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald has already stated that Smith is starting and I expect Geno to be aggressive as he looks to not only hit numerous incentives but show well in what could be his final game a Seahawk.

Rams coach Sean McVay was not kidding that he did not care about winning this game by declaring early this week that QB Matthew Stafford would be held out. Never mind that a win would give the NFC West champions a more favorable matchup in the playoffs. The Rams have also announced their intention to sit WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, along with RB Kyren Williams and two starting O-linemen. QB Geno Smith will not be lacking in incentive. He can secure up to $6 million in bonuses with a strong performance. The ‘Hawks can close out a stellar straight-up road record of 7-1, and the task just got easier with the opponent’s stated approach.

Geno Smith has three incentives that would earn him an additional $6 million in bonus money. He needs 185 passing yards, a completion rate over 69.7% and one more Seahawks win. Smith already has a completion rate over 70%, so as long as he completes a fair amount of short and intermediate throws, and as long as the Rams backups don't wreak havoc, he can get all three without having to throw a lot. Case in point: Even if Smith averages 7.0 yards per attempt this week, which is below his three-year average, he can get over 185 passing yards on just 27 attempts. Once he gets it, and if the Seahawks are up big, he could be benched or just hand off a lot.

The Rams rank 25th in yards per play allowed (5.6) and will be resting some key defensive starters. Geno Smith has $6 million in incentives on the line and coach Mike Macdonald indicated he's treating this game as a meaningful regular-season contest. Smith has made 14 starts indoors; in those games, his teams averaged 30.8 points and went over their team total 12 times. Smith had a positive EPA in all 14 games. DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both have milestones in sight, and the team as a whole wants to finish with double-digit wins in Macdonald's first year.

He has surpassed this number in eight of his last ten games. The Rams have allowed the most receptions (254) and receiving yards (3,127) to slot receivers this season. They may struggle in this matchup with a very young defense and the likelihood of resting starters on both sides of the ball. Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded 180 receiving yards in the first game at Seattle. Playing in a mostly indoor stadium with a controlled environment suggests that he could exceed 67.5 receiving yards against a Rams defense that may not be fully committed.

The Rams were able to lock up the NFC West a week early, which has altered the expectations for this game. I'd make the Rams 3.5-point favorites if a playoff spot was at stake, but the market clearly believes they'll be resting players. I agree, based on Sean McVay's history in these situations. The Seahawks can still get to 10 wins for the first time since 2020, and Geno Smith has millions of dollars in incentives based on his production in this game. If McVay announces key players will rest, this spread should increase a bit, so I'm hopping on it now with that expectation.