Momentum for the Falcons behind Michael Penix Jr. is understandable, especially given how he opens up the running game for Bijan Robinson against a Commanders unit that has struggled all season up front. Washington’s elite offense should not be discounted, though, especially against a struggling Atlanta D. The only defenses that have limited Jayden Daniels this season have been among the best in the league, and a couple wins over the Raiders and Giants don’t make the Falcons one of those. Plus, Atlanta has nearly zero pass rush while Penix is making his first road start against a Dan Quinn defense outdoors.

The weather might be an issue for Michael Penix Jr.'s first road start, and as a result I expect the Falcons' offensive gameplan to center around Bijan Robinson. He's racked up 90-plus yards in four straight and topped this number in six of the last seven, and now he faces a Washington defense that's 29th in yards per carry with 175-plus rushing yards allowed five times this year. I'd play this one up to 87.5.

As impressive as QB Michael Penix Jr. was in his Atlanta debut last Sunday, let's be real. The game unfolded at home against the Giants. His follow-up is away in the Sunday night spotlight against a much superior opponent. The Commanders entered the weekend allowing the fourth fewest passing yards. Their QB, rookie Jayden Daniels, has performed like a grizzled veteran. The Falcons demoted Kirk Cousins because the offense was in quicksand, and a win over lowly New York in the A-T-L does not suggest all woes have been washed away. A spread that separates these teams by a field goal, with the young QB making his road debut, seems insufficient.

Falcons rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. will make his first career road start in fairly ugly conditions. Rain and 10+ MPH winds are expected to impact this game. The Falcons are likely to lean heavily on RB Bijan Robinson to control possession and chew up the clock. This matchup has playoff implications, so I expect both defenses to play with intensity. The Falcons are still without their trusted kicker Younghoe Koo, and the Commanders are still missing RB Austin Ekeler, WR’s Noah Brown & Dyami Brown, and a starting OL in Andrew Wylie. If the weatherman’s report is accurate and we get significant wind and rain, I see this game plummeting under the total.

Michael Penix makes his road debut in primetime against fellow top 10 pick Jayden Daniels in what should be must see tv. However that might not be the biggest storyline of the game as mother nature may potentially have a major say in how the game unfolds. Steady winds and rain are forecasted to be the heaviest early in the game. Both defenses leave a little bit to be desired but both teams also have defensive minded head coaches that know their path to victory is on the ground. High leverage spot, weather, and two teams that want to run the ball provides a great recipe for a slow start.

It's a small sample size, and the defense did almost as much scoring as the offense last Sunday for Atlanta vs. the Giants, but U-Dub rookie QB Michael Penix looks like he has given a shot of adrenaline to this Falcons offense that needed a quick pick-me-up after Kirk Cousins began going sideways at midseason. The attraction on Sunday night is the all-rookie QB shootout vs. the Commanders' Jayden Daniels, who has a whole season's worth of starts under his belt and is off of a whirlwind comeback last week vs. the Eagles. Expect some points, as must note that Washington is also over four straight at Landover and has scored 223 points across its last seven home games, nearly 32 ppg. Play Falcons-Commanders Over

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders incredible season featured yet another thrilling final drive from their rookie quarterback in last week’s victory over Philadelphia. Still, the Commanders have been playing with fire over their last couple of matchups. The Saints nearly walked them off on a two point conversion, and the Eagles were in command last week. Atlanta has new energy on both sides of the football with the quarterback move to Michael Penix. Take the Falcons to show that fire on the road.

FanDuel. Zach Ertz has remained under this line in 9/15 games. The Falcons allow the sixth fewest targets per game to tight-ends, and rank 8th in DVOA against the position (per FTN). The weather is also calling for rain and significant wind.

Ray-Ray McCloud got four targets in Michael Penix's first start, but that game was in perfect indoor conditions. This game is expected to be played in a consistent downpour, and the wind could be a factor too. Look for Atlanta to emphasize the ground game and for Penix to primarily target his top receivers, led by Drake London.

Daniels is averaging 9 rushes for 49 yards when he plays outside the NFC East and I expect that trend to continue here vs a suspect Falcons defense. Huge game for Washington at a time its designed run game is faltering. Daniels is fully healthy again and when he drifts outside the pocket to his right he can pick up big chunks of yards on the ground. He's run for 66 yards or more in 3 of the last 4 games. He's run for 50 yards or more in 4 of the last 6 home games. ATL is 28th in total run D EPA vs QB runs.

Michael Penix attacked downfield and didn't take a sack despite being pressured 14 times by the Giants. The Falcons' offense is much more dangerous with him under center. The rookie undoubtedly will make mistakes in his first road start in a playoff-type atmosphere, but I like Atlanta to be very competitive with a division title in sight. The Commanders, coming off a draining divisional upset, are priced too high here.

The Falcons waited too long to bleed in Michael Penix and still have handcuffs on him. Jayden Daniels has a 103.9 rating in 10 games outside the NFCE with 12 passing TDs and 5 rushing TDs. WSH is 6-3-1 ATS in those games, covering by 8.1 PPG(!). Falcons D has no bite and ATL is 3-7 ATS vs winning teams, failing to cover by 8,1 PPG. ATL is 3-7 ATS outside the lowly NFC South (failing to cover by 6 PPG). Daniels has an IT factor that keeps showing up in the clutch and covering for his backers. WSH 6-2 ATS at home, covering by 5.8 PPG.