Why should anyone believe in Kyler Murray and the Cardinals these days? They haven't won a road game since Oct. 27 (1-2 ATS) only beating the Bears, Jets and Patriots at home. Now, they’re eliminated from the playoffs and relying on … pride? The Rams have held their last three non-Bills opponents to 14 points or less, and they can lock up the division. Don’t get it twisted: This line is inflated. Los Angeles should be favored in the dead zone (4.5-5.5). However, Sean McVay is nails in December, and this play is situational. Don’t see how the Cards get the Rams off the field regularly, and Arizona will struggle against Jared Verse with two backup OTs. Will try to get it -6 before kickoff.

The Rams have become a run-first team in recent weeks, feeding their workhorse RB Kyren Williams 81 carries over the past 3 games. If the Rams are playing with the lead, expect RB2 Blake Corum to shoulder some of the workload. Corum has 5+ carries in 3 of his last 4 games, and is facing an Arizona defense that ranks 22nd in rush yards allowed per game (129.5). If the Rams are in control, Corum will have his opportunities to clear this modest rushing yards line.

Now that the total is up to the key number of 48, I’ll take a stab at the Under. The Rams are wide -6.5 favorites, implying they may be playing with a lead. If that’s the case, I love our chances to hit this Under. The Rams have gone run-heavy in recent weeks, and the Cardinals are a bottom-10 run defense. Look for Sean McVay to go with a ground & pound attack that will chew up the clock. McVay also just seems to have Kyler Murray’s number, who is 2-8 SU against the Rams. When playing on the road, Murray is 25-13-1 to the Under in his career. Late season division rivalry… give me the Under.

DraftKings. Budda Baker has cleared this line in 10/15 games this season, including 8 in a blowout win against the Rams earlier this season. The Rams are an ideal opponent for opposing safety tackles, especially when they have both star receivers, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Over the last four games, the Rams have allowed 19.5 safety tackles per game (most in the NFL). Baker is not only the leading tackler for the Cards, but the second leading tackler in the NFL.

The Cardinals defense has been solid,, but the Rams have too many weapons going in pass game back at home now. Far different scenario than in their earlier meeting. Stafford has hit this in 5 of the last 8 vs AZ and has hit it in 3 of the last 4 homes games. This is a major step up from the kind of QB the Cardinals have been facing and with AZ eliminated, the spoiler role might only interest them so much. Rams will be motivated by their disaster performance in the first meeting with the Cardinals. Stafford has had his issues in prime time but showed up big in a big window vs the Bills and Eagles and expect it here too.

This is a smash spot for the Rams' running game, facing an Arizona defense that's allowed 5.9 yards per carry over the past three games. Cooper Kupp has a tougher matchup than Puca Nacua, too. And over the past two games, Kupp has been held to six targets and 24 receiving yards. In the first matchup with Arizona, a game the Rams trailed throughout, Kupp totaled 37 receiving yards.

We ride the Sean McVay December cash train again. He's 15-2 ATS in last 17 Dec games and 25-10-1 all time (13-6 on road). They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and cover in high-scoring and low scoring games. Had worst game of season at Arizona early on year and will respond accordingly here. LAR 12-4-1 ATS last 8 years vs AZ and 10-2-1 vs them as a favorite. Chance to win division at stake Cardinals eliminated and Kyler Murray has fallen off a cliff in the second half of a season, again, as he always does. Murray is 9-18 SU in Dec/Jan in his career (including one playoff loss to Rams), losing by 6+ points in 16 of those games.