Seattle's run defense has trended up in recent weeks. Going back to week 11 they've held backs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, one of the best explosive run rates, and produced a top 15 rate when it comes to yards after contact. Swift has been an accumulator and in a negative game state I'm not sure the touches are there let alone the chances to rip off an explosive. Under we go in Chicago behind a banged up Bears OL

The Seattle Seahawks are fairly predictable. When they’re behind, they throw the ball on every play, but if they are ahead, they mix in the run. If Seattle is ahead or the game is close, this number is too high. Also fog could impact this game….just sayin

With Kenneth Walker out this means Charbonet will have the most and best opportunities to have a rushing touchdown for Seattle. With the Seahawks projected at 2.75 rushing touchdowns. I see these odds as very attractive.

Seattle’s best corner is in the slot, So Caleb will see opportunities to throw the ball down the field. This is a number that is just too low. In a traditional game scripts he should go over.

I like the Bears to play spoiler tonight and potentially ruin the Seahawks playoff chances, if not at least cover. Historically, teams in “must win” scenarios facing a below .500 eliminated opponent have actually not fared well against the spread. On paper, Seattle is clearly better than Chicago, and the Bears are dealing with offensive line injuries. Although they lost by 17 to the Lions last week, Caleb Williams had a strong game finishing with 350+ total yards. Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in 9 weeks, and Chicago has had to play against elite NFC North competition. Seattle has fire power, but they have been inconsistent. The Bears are an ugly team to back, but I like them to get up for this game.

No need to make this more complicated than it needs to be. The Seahawks are a capable offensive team with an improving defense that has met bumps in the road. The Bears are a disaster behind a twice-promoted interim coach who is 0-3 losing those games by an average of 20.0 points. How often will Caleb Williams even be vertical in this game? Chicago is on a short week after playing Detroit, and teams in such situations notoriously experience downturns. Meanwhile, Seattle is all-in fighting for a playoff spot. Would I have preferred this at -3? Of course. Am I concerned about -4? Not really.

The Seattle Seahawks have lost their last two games to quality opponents and the Chicago Bears have lost their previous nine to eight quality opponents. After that successful Hail Mary by Washington, the losing standard for the rest of the season was set. No wins since after starting 4-2. The only team in that stretch that the Bears should have beat was the Patriots 3 weeks after the Washington game. The Bears can salvage something on their season by knocking the Seahawks out of the playoffs. Kenneth Walker is out for the game. Caleb Williams comes off of perhaps his best game throwing with 334 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit. I expect the Bears to be fired up to knock the Seahawks out.

DraftKings. DJ Moore has cleared this line in each of his last six games, corresponding with Thomas Brown (now interim head coach) taking over play calling duties. Brown has looked to get Moore the ball quickly - the receiver’s average depth of target in the last six games is 6.1 yards, and Moore has caught 19 designed screens in that span (per PFF - before Week 11, Moore only caught 10 screen passes). With the Bears offensive line riddled with injuries, I’d expect Moore to see plenty of quick action tonight.

Since Thomas Brown took over as interim head coach, Caleb Williams has dropped back to pass at least 65 percent of the time in neutral game situations. Seattle's run defense has gotten exponentially better lately. Over the past month, opponents are throwing against the Seahawks at the eighth-highest rate over expected. Look for Williams to throw about 35 times Thursday, in mild conditions that shouldn't detract from passing.

I played Keenan Allen Over 59.5 receiving yards, and I also like him to haul in 6+ receptions tonight. Allen saw 13 targets in each of the last two games, and got 8+ targets in 8/13 games played this season. He is easily the Bears most diverse and skilled route-runner. Look for Williams to continue developing his rapport with Allen. I expect another 10+ targets in this game, which should be enough to cash this prop for a reliable receiver like Allen.

Caleb Williams has made it a point to target his veteran WR1 down the stretch of the season. Allen has easily surpassed this receiving yards line in consecutive games. Over the past 5 games, Allen has 32 receptions for 412 yards on 54 targets, and saw 13 targets in each of the last two games. Williams and Allen struggled to find chemistry early this year, but they are connecting often now in the “garbage time” of the 2024 season. I like Allen to stay hot. I’m going to play his Over 5.5 receptions prop as well.

The Bears have major issues on their offensive line with Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins sidelined, and that should affect the effectiveness of Swift, who has been below four yards a carry in seven of his last nine games anyway. Roschon Johnson also returned to action last week and could be more involved this week as the team evaluates talent prior to the offseason. It should take more than 15 carries for Swift to get to this number, but he's hit that mark once in the last six games despite Johnson missing time in that stretch. I'd play this down to 55.5.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been on an incredible roll -- 74 or more receiving yards in seven straight games while averaging 9.1 targets -- and I like it to continue amid a mild weather forecast in Chicago. Seattle ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation, a ratio that should continue Thursday in Kenneth Walker's absence. The Bears rank 30th in EPA per dropback since Week 10, and for the season they are 31st in explosive pass plays allowed.

The Bears are struggling having lost 9 consecutive games, however Caleb Williams has made some strides under center, especially with new Offensive Coordinator Thomas Brown. Chicago is emphasizing more short area passes which has resulted in improved efficiency from Williams. I like this matchup against Seattle for numerous reasons including Seattle's inability to sustain drives (Seahawks are 28th in Time of Possession), in addition to Seattle potentially being able to push Chicago into a pass heavy gamescript.

Zach Charbonnet barely saw the ball last time out because Kenneth Walker was healthy. He's out tonight so that should mean a lot of Charbonnet again and he scored at least once in the three games prior to that when Walker was out or limited. Chicago's once-good run defense has gone to hell like everything else with that dang franchise. It's seriously hard to be a fan sometimes how comically badly run that team is.

We'd say the chances are nil that interim Thomas Brown is in consideration for the permanent Chicago HC job after the Bears have been outscored 64-14 in the first half across the three losses on Brown's watch. Chicago did move the ball some last week vs. the Lions, however, gaining nearly 400 yards, with rookie Caleb Williams passing for 334 yards. Seattle's playoff situation is now desperate, as anything other than a win tonight coupled with a Rams loss on Saturday vs. the Cardinals will eliminate the Seahawks from the playoffs. The absence of RB Kenneth Walker III is mitigated by Zac Charbonnet's ability to function as the lead back. The last four Seattle games have all cleared this 42.5 total. Play Seahawks-Bears Over

Seahawks rookie linebacker Tyrice Knight will make his seventh straight start Thursday in Chicago. He's recorded at least seven combined tackles in five of his first six starts, twice hitting double digits. Knight is excellent defending running backs catching passes and is trusted by Seattle to cover inside receivers or tight ends. The Bears are averaging 63.3 plays per game, 11th-most. They're snapping the ball with the fifth-fewest seconds between plays. Look for Knight to rack up at least seven tackles and assists.

We recently cashed fading the Bears in the first half and we're going right back to it. The Bears are a mess and Caleb and Company only seem to get it going when they're down multiple touchdowns. Seattle is coming off two losses to two of the best teams in football and are in must win mode as they still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. Look for them to come out angry and put the pedal down quickly on a team that continues to slide.

Geno has only done this once this season on the road but I don't care. He is a gunslinger who plays better on the road than at home and the Seattle run game remains iffy and they will go as Geno goes. Bears defense is a joke since they fired Matt Eberflus, and points against them come easy. Seattle 3 WR attack will be a problem for them. Bears allowed this just once in the first 10 games ... but it's hit in 4 of their last 5 games. They're cooked

JSN is the No 1 cog in the Seattle offense. Run game continues to run hot and cold, but Geno Smith chucks it as much as anyone in the NFL and the forecast doesn't look too foreboding on Thurs. JSN has at least 74 receiving yards in 7 straight games and he averages 7 receptions for 74 yards on the road. He is a handful in the slot and moving around in motion. He has 32 more targets than any other Seahawk since Week 8. Chicago having all kind of issues defending lately.

The Bears are not prepared to play games and are operating basically without a coach right now. Stink in first half whether it was Matt Eberflus or Thomas Brown in charge. Outscored 24-0, 13-0 and 27-14 at half under Browm. Bears -90 in first half on the season; only CAR, CLE and NYG are worse. Seattle offense much more comfortable on the road. Bears have trailed by 4+ at the half in 5 straight games and 8 of the last 9. Great bounce back spot for Geno Smith vs a sagging defense. Bears seem intent on a total collapse.

The market seems to be adjusting for the differing motivation factors for these teams, as my power ratings make Chicago a clear play. But I have to back the other side as the Seahawks have had no issue beating mediocre teams better than the Bears over the last six weeks. Chicago's defense is in the tank at this point, which should allow Geno Smith to come up big in a must-win spot, while the Seahawks D-line should have a field day with a decimated Chicago offensive line that will keep the Bears from backdooring a cover.

These are the spots where you back Geno Smith, on the road, season on the line, and especially against a lesser opponent. Seattle’s last 4 losses are to very tough teams – MIN, GB, LAR, BUF – and they can compete. But they own lesser teams (5-2-1 ATS vs losing teams) and have an average margin of victory of 10 points. All 8 wins are by at least 3 points. Thomas Brown has been a failure as interim coach, the Bears don’t really compete and have trailed by at least 13 at the half in all 3 games under him. Ten straight losses and counting. SEA 4-1-1 ATS on road covering by 7.4/G, 5th in NFL). Will jump the Hawks in the first half, too.