The total has inched up with QB Patrick Mahomes cleared to play as well as other skill-position players coping with injuries. Given Mahomes' gimpy ankle, his dropbacks to throw -- and his love of scrambling -- should be curtailed. More handoffs mean a shorter game. K.C. wields the league's third stringiest defense, with the Steelers 12th. The Chiefs have reached the 30-point mark in regulation once all season, and the target here could be beyond reach. Pittsburgh has exceeded the number once since its bye in Week 9. An above-average total seems like a holiday gift for Under players.

I am on Hunt’s Over 32.5 Rush yards prop, and I also like him to find the end zone. Last week, Hunt saw 13 touches and went for 79 total yards and a TD. He had two explosive plays for 15+ yards, one through the air and one on the ground. Translation: I think Andy Reid stays with the hot hand, and gives Hunt some red zone touches.

The Steelers are completely capable of winning this game with George Pickens back giving Russell Wilson the playmaking WR he needs. In fact, last week, I was planning to take them in this spot assuing the line would be -3.5 or higher. However, except for the circumstantial first meeting against Baltimore, Pittsburgh has mostly gotten past lower-tier opponents. Kansas City can win games in any and every way. The returns of Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown have helped the Chiefs open their offense, and the opportunity to back Patrick Mahomes under a FG is almost a must at this point. By the way, Mahomes is 3-0 against Mike Tomlin with 14 TD and 1 INT lifetime. Take this through -2.5; books are bouncing around.

This Xmas day game is a tough scheduling spot, as the Chiefs and Steelers will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days. I think that sets up some more “running back by committee” action for Kareem Hunt. Although Isiah Pacheco has reassumed his lead back duties since returning from a broken fibula, he doesn’t quite look ready to be the workhorse yet. Hunt has been a reliable veteran, with zero fumbles on the season. Hunt has cleared this rushing yards line in consecutive games. The Chiefs offensive line will have their hands full with T.J Watt & Alex Highsmith, so expect KC to use the run game to alleviate pressure for Mahomes.

Kansas City has quietly started to figure things out offensively over the last few weeks. The return of Hollywood Brown only gives the best QB in the game another weapon and deep threat to pair opposite Xavier Worthy. Pittsburgh also gets their best pass catcher George Pickens back in the mix after missing the last 3 games. The Steelers will be down their top cover corner in Joey Porter and there's a more than zero chance the Chiefs best pass rusher Chris Jones is limited or out today. We're going to look for points and do so early from the Steel City

Everyone knows the Chiefs have been gashed by opposing tight ends all season. George Pickens' return should only help create space for Pat Freiermuth, who has 23 targets over the past five games. The Chiefs' passing offense is on the upswing, which should force more passing from Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh got largely great news off its final injury report with George Pickens and others in the clear, although not having cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is not ideal. Kansas City left tackle DJ Humphries is out again and even bigger is defensive tackle Chris Jones listed questionable. Normally, I'd expect him to go but it is the team's third game in 11 days and it's much more important to make sure Jones is healthy for the playoffs. If he sits, any of the 3s still out there will be gone for good, so that's why I'll just play this now. If it stays at 3, I'll probably pay for the hook. The Steelers are 4-0 SU & ATS at home with Russell Wilson under center.

It's almost win-or-else for the Steelers if they want to hang on to the top spot in the AFC North. Though KC has covered its last two, laying three points or more still seems a risky move with the Chiefs, who dropped seven straight vs. the spread prior to the past two weeks vs. the bumbling Browns and the weakening Texans. Even with losses last two weeks at Philly and Baltimore, remember Mike Tomlin is still 14-5 his last 19 as an underdog and both of those games were on the road. The Steelers have won and covered all four of their home games with Russell Wilson at QB, and Russ beat the Chiefs the last time he faced them a year ago. Play Steelers

B365. Chiefs rookie receiver Xavier Worthy has cleared this line in each of his last four games. In each of his last two contests, he’s seen 11 targets - easily pacing the Chiefs in each game. Very notably, with Hollywood Brown back in the lineup, Worthy was kicked to the slot for 62% of his routes. With a 6.5 aDOT, and 3 designed screens, he ran a very similar route tree to Rashee Rice. Worthy has been eased into this role recently, and I’m comfortable assuming that won’t change in a short week. So, Worthy will see Beanie Bishop, the Steelers slot corner who has allowed the 7th worst coverage snap to reception rate amongst qualified corner backs this season (per PFF).

The Kansas City Chiefs are 14-1 on the season and they've covered their last two games after 7 non-covers but I'm taking the Steelers +3 at home against the Chiefs. Am I crazy? I mean, I keep going against the Chiefs, and not too many times I've been successful, but at Pittsburgh, I feel this is the time. The Steelers have lost two straight to the Eagles and the Ravens they seem like they've been beaten and battered but they're ready to take it up a notch rather than falter. Pittsburgh is 10-5 against the spread and they're 5-1 at home. Steelers No. 8 defense with an offense that might get George Pickens back. Pittsburgh is +17 in turnover margin. Merry Christmas, Steelers +3.

Hard to imagine Justin Fields is back in time for a very quick turnaround here. Wilson has activated his legs more s the stakes have raised and is over this in 3 straight games with Fields not there to vulture opportunities. He can still scoot plenty when he has to and work his way out of the pass rush and this number is low to me. Would not be surprised if he doubles this total.

Still seems to be the most in-form and preferred RB for the Chiefs with Isaiah Pacheco getting little work. Very quick turnaround for KC here vs an elite pass rush team with crappy tackles and an OL that can't pass protect. Hunt is over this in 2 straight and has at least 13 carries in all 6 road games he's played in. Andy Reid can't get too cute with Patrick Mahomes here away from home and I expect both backs to get double-digit carries.

How crazy is Andy Reid going to go here with Mahomes playing twice in 4 days? Ankle didn't look like an issue Sat, but still. KC road games averaging just 42 points and Steelers are 4-2 to the under at home. Steelers play at snails pace and won't get caught rushing under 30 times 2 games in a row. Mike Tomlin is 18-10 to the under as a home dog. Steelers can't score much without George Pickens; hard to see him 100% for this if he plays at all. PIT 8-2 under in last 10 spots as a home dog outside the AFC N. On road, expect KC to pound the ball knowing his OL sucks in pass pro and PIT can bring it.