Courtland Sutton has the unenviable task of dealing with the Browns' primary cover corner Denzel Ward. Rather than force feed the alpha, this gives Bo Nix opportunity to look the other way and Devaughn Vele should become the primary beneficiary. Over the last 3 weeks Vele has seen 18 total targets and his receiving yardage production climb from 39 to 66 to 80 last week vs the Raiders. Going back to Week 10, he's generated a 17.1% target share, 22.4% first-read share, and 3.79 yards per route run. Over we go with the rookie receiver out of Utah at a reasonable price

Nix has been outstanding over the last five weeks, and he is really starting to look comfortable running Sean Payton's offense. Denver hasn't had a strong rushing attack, so the offense has used the screen game to help fill that void. I expect Nix to finish with a completion total in the mid 20's.

I expect Jerry Jeudy to be matched up with Patrick Surtain for a lot of this game, which should open things up for Moore (Denver will be without starting CB Riley Moss on the other side). Given the way things played out for Jeudy in Denver and his recent comments about the Broncos, I expect to see the Broncos make a concerted effort to shut the former first round pick down on MNF. The main benefactor should be Moore.

This total basically amounts to one catch for Franklin. The former Oregon standout struggled in training camp to the point where his roster spot was in question, but has since settled in nicely. Franklin has seen 13 targets in the Broncos' last four games. If that trend continues, he should have no issues going over here.

I expect the Broncos to have more than enough scoring drives to comfortably go over here. The biggest concern for me here is whether or not they are able to finish drives with touchdowns vs. field goals. With the way Bo Nix has been playing of late, I expect 3+ touchdowns from the Broncos. If they add in a field goal, this number is covered.

Cleveland has been a Jekyll and Hyde team with Jameis Winston at QB. The Browns beat the Steelers and Ravens, while also being blown out by the Saints and Chargers. Denver has been playing its best football of the season (aside from the blowout loss to the Ravens) over the last five weeks. The Broncos defense is elite, and leads the NFL with 44.0 sacks. The Browns will again be without starting left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr.. Bo Nix has been efficient and now leads the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race. This game simply means more to the Broncos, and meaningful late season games have been few and far between for Denver since Peyton Manning left. Broncos by 7+ here.

The Broncos will likely start this game with the ball -- Sean Payton has opted to take the ball if Denver wins the toss, while Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has traditionally deferred to the second half. A key to the Broncos' recent success has been starting fast and getting Bo Nix into a rhythm. If the Broncos score any points on their opening drive, I expect this pick to hit. Denver has held the lead after one quarter in two straight games, and I expect it to be three straight after tonight.

This game has a shockingly similar setup to Chargers-Browns, which saw Cleveland lose by 17 at home last month. While the Browns do have a slight rest advantage, the Broncos are playing with a lot of confidence holding a 5-1 ATS mark and only one poor loss (at Ravens) in the last six weeks. The defense is carrying Denver, but Bo Nix totaling 12 TD and 1 INT over the last six games has been key. The Broncos' most glaring weakness is their rushing, but they'll be going against a 22nd-ranked Browns run D. Jameis Winston should struggle against Sean Payton's defense while remaining winless on the road as a starter since Sept. 11, 2022.

Jameis Winston only threw for 27 attempts last week because of the snow, tonight it'll be 38° with 4 miles an hour wind and no precipitation. In his three previous starts for the Browns he had 46 attempts against the Saints, 46 attempts against the Chargers, and 41 attempts against the Ravens. Chances are they're going he's going to need to throw. Over 35.5 attempts.

Jordan Akins is a 32-year-old trusted target for Jameis Winston. Akins has gotten four targets in each of the past three games, producing at least 19 receiving yards each time. And he has dropped only one pass this season. With Cedric Tillman out, it's unlikely the Browns will simply give all those snaps to rookie fifth-round pick Jamari Thrash (1 target this season). Look for Cleveland to use more two tight-ends sets and for Akins to go Over this low number.

Jerry Jeudy has a tough matchup today with Patrick Surtain on the other side of the field, but I'm trusting his volume of work with Jameis Winston at QB here. Over the last four weeks, Jeudy has caught five passes in every game, and he averaged 10 targets per game in Winston's first three starts prior to the snow-affected primetime win over the Steelers. I expect another 10 targets today for Jeudy, and that should help him get anywhere from 6-8 receptions with Winston delivering him the ball.

Bo Nix has gotten better as a passer as the season has progressed as evidenced by his willingness to push the ball downfield more, with his three lowest yards-per-completion games coming in the first four weeks of the season. But that doesn't mean he's been risky with the ball, as he's thrown just one pick in his last six games and only two picks since Week 2. The Browns have intercepted just two passes all year, a far cry from averaging more than one per game last year. This seems like a great matchup for Nix to keep clean in the interception column once again.

Williams has 56 carries in five home games this season, putting his per game average right where it needs to be to hit this number. This is a spot where I see the Broncos entering the fourth quarter with the lead. Williams is the trusted back for Payton in that case (Estime has had some ball security issues). Getting this at +105 is a great value.

Essentially, we are betting that we will not have a touchdown and a field goal in the first 15 minutes (The only other way to get there would be three field goals…unlikely). I chose this play because lately, teams have been slow starters. In their last 3, Cleveland has 3, 14 and 10 entering the 4th quarter. Meanwhile in 3 of last 4 Denver has not exploded early.

I realize Denver has been very good against the run, but the only time Chubb has been under this number was when Cleveland lost 35 to 14 and completely abandoned the run for much of the second half. In fact, Winston had 46 pass attempts in that game. This won’t be easy but I projected 16.

James’s averaging over 8 yards per attempt in every game but one. With a projected Total of 35.5 pass attempts he should clear this hurdle. I note this line is 6-12 yards lower than almost every other book.

Some real history in this series that includes the second-ever meeting (and first at Cleveland) in 1971, when Lou Saban didn't have to remind his Broncos that then-Browns owner Art Modell had once said in pre-merger days that he "never wants the Denver Broncos" to play in Cleveland Municipal Stadium. Using that as extra fuel, Saban's Broncos went out and dominated by a 27-0 count, holding Cleveland to a paltry 60 yards of offense. The Browns likely do a bit better tonight but the momentum is still with Denver, at 7-5 and in position to further tighten its grip on an AFC playoff spot with pursuers already losing this weekend. Note the Brownies haven't won or covered back-to-back games this season. Play Broncos

Rookie QB Bo Nix has impressively limited turnovers and sacks. After Nix began his career by throwing 4 interceptions in his first 2 games, he drastically improved ball security. Nix has thrown just 2 interceptions over the last 10 games, and has been sacked more than 3 times just once this season. I bring up sacks because pressure creates mistakes, and Nix’s ability to evade defensive linemen has been a key factor in limiting interceptions. The Browns defense ranks 31st in the NFL in interceptions, nabbing just two on the entire season. I’m betting on Nix to successfully protect the rock.

Bo Nix gets a lot of the acclaim for the recent Broncos success, but their defense is carrying the load ranked No. 3, allowing 296 yards per game and also ranked first in sacks with 42. The Broncos are 7-5 and 9-3 against the spread. The Browns offense is surely better with Jameis Winston but they still rank 29th overall. The Browns recently won two home games against the Steelers and Ravens but haven't gone on the road since Week 2 at Jacksonville. The best thing about Bo Nix is that he's gained much confidence as the weeks go by. In his last three games, he's thrown eight touchdown passes with no interceptions. Broncos cover.

Courtland Sutton props for me tonight. I bet his Over receptions, receiving yards, and we might as well play .5u on the anytime TD for the Sutton trifecta. Sutton found the end zone twice last week against the Raiders, and is just straight up on fire. I’m riding the Courtland Sutton heater and hoping he can keep it rolling in Primetime.

I played Sutton’s Over receiving yards, and I will play his receptions line as well. This line moved from 4.5 to 5.5, but I like it at these plus odds. Sutton has 6+ receptions in 5-straight games. Ever since Bo Nix’s odd Week 7 game, (in which Nix admitted he failed to realize his lack of targets his WR1) Nix and Sutton have been highly efficient. Sutton is now the league’s 6th most targeted receiver, and should find plenty of opportunities for catches against a beatable Browns secondary.

I’m joining the Courtland Sutton party. Sutton has gone over this mark in 5-straight games, and is developing great chemistry with QB Bo Nix. Nix & Sutton have connected on a 20+ yard play in 9/12 games this season. The Browns have given up deep shots of 40+ yards in 3-straight games. Sutton has 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games, and is all of a sudden the 6th most targeted receiver in the NFL. He should get enough usage to clear his receiving yards total for the 6th game in a row.

In their last three games against the Raiders, Falcons and Chiefs, the Broncos have allowed 3.1 yards per carry. Denver is favored by nearly a touchdown on Monday Night Football, as well, so the game script might not allow for Nick Chubb to get huge volume. Opponents are running the ball 39.8 percent of the time vs. Denver, the NFL's sixth-lowest rate. That rate has plunged to 28.7 percent over the past three games. Chubb got 20 carries in the snow game against Pittsburgh but that was an outlier due to the conditions and the Browns playing from ahead.

The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, and it feels like we're reaching peak value in the market as a result. They've played a lot of bad and beat-up teams in that stretch, and maybe the Browns qualify in that category, but Cleveland also has wins over the Ravens and Steelers with Jameis Winston at QB and probably deserved better against the Saints (443 yards and only 14 points). Left tackle is an area of concern for the Browns, but since it held up against a great Pittsburgh pass rush, I'll trust it does enough here to keep Cleveland in this game.

Two solid defenses meet on Monday Night Football, but the difference in this game is with the offensive weapons and the Quarterbacks. Most QBs struggle with pressure (both teams create pressure), and that's no different with Bo Nix and Jameis Winston, but Winston is far more turnover prone and I expect him to give the ball away one or two times tonight. Add to that the Broncos are at home, have better weapons and have way more at stake. It was an impressive division win for the Browns last week, but this sets up as a let down spot for a team that is out of the playoff picture.

Courtland Sutton has become Bo Nix's favorite target and has five straight games with at least 70 receiving yards. Only Minnesota star Justin Jefferson has a longer streak this year at seven in a row. The SL Model has Sutton at 63.5 tonight. The Browns defense allows the eighth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Would love this a tick lower, but can live with this. Bo Nix is playing great and this is a strong Denver D that can exploit Jameis Winston's worst instincts turning the ball over. CLE is 2-6 ATS outside the AFC North, failing to cover by 10 points on average. Browns 4-8-1 on road since '23. DEN 6-0 ATS vs losing teams this season, winning 5 by double digits and covering on average by 4.5 points. Broncos 5-1 ATS in last 6 overall. I expect Sean Payton to have a sound game plan for his rookie QB, who is meeting every challenge. I have faith in stout Denver OL to prevent Myles Garrett from wrecking this game and if that holds it could get ugly.

This is more of a lean, with just 0.15 units invested, but I'm on the Browns +6 as my simulation makes the number +4 for the Broncos. The Browns excel at one thing in particular: generating pressure on the quarterback. Bo Nix has been solid, but this is a tough test against a strong defensive unit. I like the Browns to keep it close, especially coming off the mini bye week from Thursday night to Monday night.

Browns strong safety Grant Delpit has recorded seven-plus combined tackles in four straight games, and playing Denver is a great matchup for safeties. In addition, fellow starting safety Juan Thornhill is out. Delpit had 10 tackles in the Week 12 win over Pittsburgh and nine the week before at New Orleans. He also missed five tackles in those two games combined, so the opportunities should be there.

The Browns have been burned repeatedly by No. 1 receivers, and on Monday it should be Courtland Sutton's turn. He has excelled against man coverage, which the Browns play nearly 40 percent of the time. He has 70 or more receiving yards in five straight games and this is a plus-matchup. The weather forecast is mild: low 40s with light wind. So the passing games shouldn't be impacted.

Courtland Sutton has been targeted 48 times the past five games, drawing at least eight targets and catching at least six passes in each. That's why I'm paying the steep price to go Over 4.5 receptions. He has a tremendous matchup Monday. The Browns play a ton of man coverage, and Sutton owns a 27 percent target share vs. man. Even if Josh Reynolds returns, Sutton should still lead the Broncos in targets.

Winston "only" threw 27 times in a rare win, but that was at home in a close game all the way through and with the snow being an issue. This is like the Browns with Joe Flacco late last year - pencil in 40 throws a game. Winston had 41, 46 and 46 attempts in his three previous starts and on MNF good luck taking the ball out of his hands. This team loves him and he is there to chuck the ball all over the yard. The Browns will struggle to run the ball the way they'd like and expect it to be in the hands of Famous Jameis all the time.

The development of Bo Nix has been a boon to Sutton's productivity. He is over 70 yards receiving in 5 straight games and Nix loves targeting him. The Browns are allowing 10.1 yards/attempt to WRs on the road this season (30th) and a ridiculous 17.71 yards/comp to them on the road, by far worst in the NFL. Not sure Myles Garrett has another 3 sacks game in him and Browns D has been awful tepid overall this season. Sutton has a flare for making big plays. Sutton has a long of 32 or more in 3 of the last 5; one of those gets us halfway home.