Williams is at 22.5 in most books and the few books left that have him at 21.5 are charging upwards of -167. This is too attractive a price on a new offense that is stressing the short high completion pass.

Where this game can get competitive is on the offensive side of the ball for the Bears. There's room for them to attack this Lions secondary. They have enough offensive weapons to make this a back-and-forth affair. Playing indoors on turf will help their cause against the Lions.

The Bears rank 28th in explosive run rate allowed, and their run defense hasn't been the same since defensive tackle Andrew Billings went on IR. Jahmyr Gibbs has cleared this prop total in eight of his last 10 games; he could get more carries than usual if David Montgomery is limited by his shoulder injury. The Bears' defense is playing on the road, on a short week, coming off an overtime game. Look for Gibbs to break at least one run of 18-plus yards.

Curious that this has come down a bit under 10, but given how much public action will likely be on the Lions, I do not see it dropping further. The Bears have put up fights against the Packers and Vikings that make this seem like a contest. Let's remember the Lions have won eight straight (7-1 ATS), covered two double-digit spreads in that stretch and won the last five by an average of 23.0 points. On Thanksgiving, Detroit has lost seven straight with a 4-16 record. Chicago, meanwhile, has won four straight over Detroit on this day. Both streaks snap in dramatic fashion. The Bears offense won't keep up, and the Lions have every motivational edge plus a dominant run game to boot. Oh my.

There are three very talented receivers on the Bears roster, but I happen to think Rome Odunze is the most special of them all. New offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, appears to agree with me as the target rate has gone up and he's received 10 targets in each of his last two games. Efficiency is a big problem between Caleb and Rome, but I expect that to even out and I expect Rome to come down with enough catches to sail past this number. It helps that we are looking at a likely negative game script, but even in a neutral game script, this is a solid number.

This is a nice price to play against Swift. The new OC seems to have committed to the pass…and Swift has only averaged this figure with the new regime, despite the fact they have run far more plays than i project them to run on Thanksgiving. I make this 11. Under

New Offensive Coordinator Brian Thomas has made a big impact on Chicago's offense and as a result we saw Caleb Williams dropback 45 times last week against the Vikings. In addition to posting a 5% PROE Thomas schemed up 12 screen passes which resulted in 11 completions for Williams. Now Williams will face a Detroit defense that is a pass funnel and we're likely to have game script working in our favor as well.

The Lions love to target the middle of the field, and Amon-Ra St. Brown faces the toughest matchup Thursday against Bears slot corner Kyler Gordon. It's a much softer draw for Sam LaPorta. The Bears have given up 69 or more receiving yards to opposing tight ends in five of the past six games, with T.J. Hockenson going off last week for 114 yards. I love LaPorta to collect at least 35 receiving yards.

Since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has run for 103 yards in two games. Now he gets one of the top matchups for QB rushing yards: Detroit. The Lions play more man coverage than any team, and we saw it again last week when Anthony Richardson ran for 61 yards. Jacksonville is another man-heavy defense, and Williams rushed for 56 yards in that matchup. Look for Williams to net at least 30 rushing yards Thursday.

I'm not saying it'll be a quality 46 yards. But a meaningless 15-yard run well short of the first down to improve field position for a punt, DOES still count. Buy low on D'Andre Swift’s 30 yards on 13 carries last week and his slow start in Chicago overall. He went for 50+ rushing yards in the previous 7 games, and Detroit's YPC allowed are up to 4.3 from last year. The Model has him projected for 58 yards.

Under their new offensive coordinator, The Bears have been a more pass centric offense. While the volume is increasing, the passage, total is still very manageable. I expect this to rise so grab it now.

The 4-7 Chicago Bears have lost five straight but they did show some fight and cover the last two. They're 0-4 away from Chicago and they're away from Chicago this week at Detroit to play the 10-1 Lions who happened to be 9-2 against the spread. The offensive side gets all the acclaim but the defense is No. 2 in scoring allowing 16.6 points a game. It's the No. 2 offense in the league with the No. 1 scoring offense. A struggling team against a team that wins and covers even when playing below standards. This Lions offense is almost automatic. Lions to cover.

The Lions have been a juggernaut for much of the season, but their margin wins have been against mostly terrible teams and Chicago is probably above that tier. The Bears offense has looked much better the last two weeks with the new OC, and they have the weapons to test the injuries on the Lions defense, which may include Carlton Davis missing this game. Even if Detroit is able to run up the score, and that's not a given against a solid defense with some key players banged up, the Bears should be capable of a backdoor cover on this large number.

Caleb Williams has rebounded from a tough start to the season which has coincided with Thomas Brown taking over at offensive coordinator. With his primary pass catchers healthy and a likely trailing game script, I think we see Caleb pass the ball a good amount on Thanksgiving. Add to that the Lions have a very solid rush defense and play aggressively on the back end, which means more pass attempts early and the potential for a big play or two to comfortably hit this over. I'll note that I also like Williams pass attempts over of 33.5.

The Lions just keep covering. They are 9-2 ATS this season and continue to steamroll opponents. Don’t let this wide spread scare you away. Thanksgiving favorites of 7 or greater are 19-7 ATS. Sure, everyone and their cousin is going to be on the Lions in this spot, but this is likely to be a big public winner to start the day. The Bears offense has been horrid on the road, and their defense just cannot stop the run, ranking 30th in Rush DVOA. Good luck stopping ‘Sonic’ & ‘Knuckles’ (Jamhyr Gibbs and David Montgomery). Don’t overthink this one, Lions by 50.

Goff has fared well against this Bears defense at home. He is over this in 4 of the last 6 games vs them in Detroit and has averaged 1.8 TDs/G vs them with a 97.3 rating. Goff has been hot at home, hitting this in 3 straight home games, with 9 TDs total in that span. Bears just got carved up by Sam Darnold at home, their defense has started to wilt amid all the heartbreaking losses lately. They have only allowed 9 passing TDs this season, but are facing a rare offense here, and after losing 7 in a row on Thanksgiving I could see Dan Campbell holding nothing back against a divisional foe. Goff doesn't need a lot of attempts to hit this.

The Lions look like a team on mission this season, and they have been the best team in the league thus far (all due respect to the Chiefs). I don't like this road spot at all for Caleb Williams and the Bears, who enter this shortened week coming off back-to-back home losses. I have the Lions winning by two touchdowns here.

Caleb Williams has looked much better the past two weeks under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, but those games were at home. He has been much worse on the road and now faces a Lions team that has not given up a TD the past two weeks. Chicago enters off consecutive heartbreaking division losses. The Lions are motivated to get the No. 1 seed and to atone for flopping on Thanksgiving last year.

Detroit may be the 'Road Warriors' of the NFL (self proclaimed), but they have been pretty good at home this season too. The Lions have been dominant during their nine-game winning streak, and Chicago has been a slow-starting team all season. While the Bears showed some signs of life in their Week 12 loss to Minnesota, I'm still not convinced things have improved in that locker room. I expect another fast start from the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Matt Eberflus has coached 21 road games with the Bears and he has led in the half twice and been tied in just four others. They have 19 first-half road points all season (10 fewer than any other team). They have trailed by 6 or more at the half in four straight road games and trailed by 5 or more at the half in 11 of their 21 road games under this head coach. Since the start of 2022, Lions have +172 point differential at home in the first half, best in the NFL (14 better than any other team). They are leading at the half this season on average by 9.5 points, also best in NFL. Short week very tough for Bears rookie QB.

So double-digit dogs finally covered last week, but I don’t see that happening here. Caleb Williams is in for a ridiculous crowd in a loud dome in Detroit, Chicago can’t score points on the road (9, 15, 16, 13), and their defense will be severely tested here by a dominant Lions OL. Dan Campbell is 22-8 ATS at home, Matt Eberflus is 7-14 ATS on the road and his teams tend to have massive meltdowns. Bears just lost consecutive heartbreaking divisional games at home and now has to play on road in very short week. Yeah this is a big number, but Bears have already lost by 16 points or more twice this month to far lesser opponents. Bears 10-20 ATS on road since 2021.