I was holding out hope in getting this one at -3, but I still like this number. The Browns are a mess -- their coach is on the hot seat, injuries have stacked up, and the weather isn't conducive to them having much success against this Pittsburgh team. The Steelers are coming off an ugly win, but a win is still a win, especially in the NFL. I expect a dominant defensive performance from Pittsburgh here and a comfortable Steelers win on TNF.

I played around with taking this at 6.5 points at +128, but I opted to play this number instead. At the full 7 points, the worst case scenario I see here is a push, but I still expect 6 or less points in the first quarter.

This was trending toward -3 earlier only to never reach it with time ticking away. Still comfortable at -3.5 given how the Steelers offense has played with Chris Boswell cleaning up nicely on special teams. The Browns have been better on defense when home but got thwarted 27-10 by the Chargers, a similar opponent. In fact, Baltimore with its awful secondary is the only team Cleveland has scored more than 16 points against this season. Pittsburgh has won its last two in close fashion, though both came against talented offenses. This would normally be a fade spot for surging team on the road in a short week, but Mike Tomlin will have his crew ready, and the running backs may have themselves a day.

I've mentioned this a time or two already, but the weather is going to be a factor here. I expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on its rushing attack and short/intermediate passing game. Harris averages over 18 receiving yards per game, and I expect him to see an uptick in targets on Thursday night. This is a spot where Harris could easily hit this number on one reception.

Russ has only gone over this number twice . And both instances, he had exactly 4 carries and only because he kneeled multiple times at the end of the game. He is unlikely to have designed QB runs… So let’s play the under and let’s do it at plus money.

This number keeps dropping, and now it’s time to pounce. Cleveland is brutal versus opposing running backs in the past game and as there is some variance in how Warren is used, I’ll throw this dart and not care how the yards are earned. Plus the possible snow can actually help a shifty RB in the pass game. Over

Now that he has returned to health following an injury, the versatile RB has re-emerged as both the change of pace and passing-downs back for the Browns. He has clipped this number in 5 of the 7 games in which he played 30% or more of the snaps, including 4 grabs in last week's loss to the Saints. There's major value at this plus-money price.

The Steelers' performance trajectory suggests this is a clear fade spot. They are coming off their annual home win over the Ravens and turn around on short notice to face an underachieving Browns coming off consecutive three-score losses in what has become a lost season. This should be a favorable spot for them to show some pride and, at a minimum, take this game to the wire.

Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have made up one of the league’s stronger RB tandems this season. With nasty weather conditions expected, the Steelers should hit the Browns with a heavy dose of their rush attack. Warren is a perfect complimentary back to Harris with his shiftiness and tough running style. He has cleared this line in four straight games, and should be featured alongside Harris on this short week game in weather. 31 still seems too low, play the Over.

Jameis Winston has thrown the ball over 40 times in each of his three starts, averaging 44 Attempts per game. Tonight he is projected for 34.5 attempts, meaning his targets will get a third less opportunities. Njoku is averaging 7 targets in the Jameis starts meaning if he goes down to 5 he will have to catch them all.

I’m on Browns team total Under 16.5 already, so why not double up and play the full game Under 37. Weather conditions, a lackluster Browns offense, a stingy Steelers defense, and a run-heavy game script should keep the scoring low in this one. Be sure to play the Under at 37 or better in case we get a 20-17 final.

Pittsburgh is beat up. It’s a divisional game. Short week. On the road. All true. But no matter how many times I watch Hoosiers, Hickory wins. Same goes for Rudy….he always gets on the field. The point? I’ve seen this movie and I make Pitt better than 61.5% to win

Time to regress back up. I'm not looking for primetime Nick Chubb, but i know he can give us more than 3 YPC. Pittsburgh’s pass rush forces a ton of turnovers and Jameis Winston is renowned for his high turnover rate. This could result in a ton of carries for Chubb, atop poor weather. The Model has him projected for 60.

This is steaming up. This is not the same blocking TE Darnell Washington of the past. He has soared over this number in three of his last four games, and the one he went under, he still had three targets. With the weather conditions tonight, I anticipate short field passes. And for a guy averaging 11.7 yards per catch, this might only take one.

Jameis Winston has been a high-volume passer in his three starts, but that should prove more difficult in a bad-weather environment. As a result, I expect some of those pass attempts to turn into scrambles, especially if the Browns get stuck in third-and-long and playing the field-position game becomes key. He had an eight-yard rush last week and five carries for 27 yards in his previous game, so it's not like he's afraid to take off when it's warranted. That makes it likely to me he gets above this number for a third straight game.

The weather should be a factor in this game, leading to less passing and more running the ball. Jaylen Warren has had nine-plus carries and 40-plus yards in four straight games, so even in good weather the expectation would be he'd go over this total. With increased volume, a matchup against a Browns defense that has done an awful job tackling in recent weeks and potentially poor weather to help make defenders miss, I like this to be a strong game for Warren where he might get over this total by halftime.

It could be a long night for the Browns offense on Thursday Night Football. The Browns have scored 16 or fewer points in 7/10 games this year, and in 2/3 with Jameis Winston at QB. Cleveland’s offense lacks firepower, and will be playing in ugly weather conditions at home. With the game total set at a low 37 points, I expect a lack of scoring output from the Browns side. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks #2 in the NFL in PPG allowed (16.2), and have a Top 10 red zone defense. Browns Kicker Dustin Hopkins also went 0/2 last week, and missed a chip shot 27-yarder. He’ll be tough to trust in the rain. I don’t see Cleveland getting 17.

Nick Chubb has clearly not been himself since returning from injury as the Browns continue making a concerted effort to keep his workload light. Last Week Jerome Ford had a 56% snap share but only finished the game with 5 carries. Inclement weather creating a slick surface tonight suggests a steady dose of ground and pound for Cleveland could be in the forecast. This has been a lost season for the Browns so in my opinion giving your franchise back a heavy workload on a short week doesn't make sense meaning Ford sees an uptick in touches. Given the depressed rushing total on RB2 we'll go over his number vs the Steelers.

A mix of rain, wind and snow is expected in Cleveland tonight. As a result, I expect Browns QB Jameis Winston to look for his RB’s in the pass game. Despite Nick Chubb’s return, Ford has still remained on the field for about 50% of the snaps. Ford has 3+ targets in 6/8 games this season, and will typically be Cleveland’s RB in known passing situations. Look for Winston to get the ball out quickly when T.J Watt and company bring the pressure.

After a blazing debut by QB Jameis Winston three weeks ago, the Browns' bumbling offense has managed 24 points in two games. (One of three TDs came in garbage time.) Now Cleveland must cope with an added impediment -- inclement weather. Good luck scoring against rain or snow, plus the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers' offense has perked up with their midseason switch to QB Russell Wilson. With a superior squad, coach Mike Tomlin likely will curtail risky passes and ground Cleveland down with a rushing approach. That could keep the clock rolling and deliver an Under.

Devin Bush played 72 percent of the snaps last week in New Orleans and finished with his second straight 8-tackle performance. Now he's facing the team that drafted him 10th overall (and declined his 5th-year option), in what will likely be a run-heavy Pittsburgh attack. When he faced the Steelers late last season, as a member of the Seahawks, Bush racked up 18 stops. Over the last three games, the Steelers are controlling the ball and averaging a whopping 70.7 plays. It all sets up for Bush to collect at least six combined stops.

Jameis Winston gets to have some stability and a chance to settle in this year with the Cleveland Browns. It’s the first time since 2021 that he will start his fourth straight game. Pittsburgh, has went 6-1 in the division over the last two seasons. The one loss was to Cleveland, and frankly they were fortunate to win the other game on a scoop and score deciding touchdown by TJ Watt. Grab the points with Cleveland.

Jameis Winston is projected to throw only 33-35 passes, but even with lower volume I still like Elijah Moore to be heavily involved. He has 29 targets in three games with Winston. Moore usually lines up in the slot, where he'll face Steelers rookie corner Beanie Bishop. With the Steelers' vaunted pass rush breathing down on Winston, and with the Browns playing their backup left tackle, quick throws to Moore should be plentiful.

The Steelers have won their last five games and covered as well and the last four have been engineered by Russell Wilson. But it hasn't just been Wilson making all the right moves it's been the defense allowing only 305 yards per game ranked eighth in the NFL. Cleveland is almost last in every category on offense thanks to DeShaun Watson and now Jameis Winston. Cleveland has lost seven of their last eight games. They have mailed the last two in losing by 21 to the Saints and 17 to the Chargers. Steelers to cover.

As I mentioned in another one of my picks, weather will be a factor here. The Browns' offense is already a mess, and having to deal with potential wind/rain/snow won't make things any easier. On the other side, the Steelers are coming off a zero touchdown performance in their win over Baltimore last week. I see this as a 20-13 type of game.

The weather report for Thursday night looks nasty. The Browns were going to have a difficult time moving the ball and scoring on Pittsburgh to begin with. When you factor in the wind/rain/snow, it's hard to see them scoring 17+ points here.

Over the past three games, the Browns have given up 24 catches for 239 yards to opposing tight ends. Darnell Washington, a freakish athlete at 6-6, 274 pounds, has ascended lately in the Steelers' offense, outplaying Pat Freiermuth over the past four games and becoming a favorite of Russell Wilson's. He ranks third among all tight ends in PFF grade over the past month; his improved blocking has led to more playing time. Look for Washington to clear this receiving number, even in the inclement weather.

Last season there was a sizable gap between Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris as far as their efficiency metrics were concerned. Najee looked like he was running in concrete, while on the other hand Warren was a far more dynamic RB and was one of the more explosive backs in the NFL. Heading into this season, it appeared that Warren had momentum to at the very least earn more touches in Pittsburgh's backfield, however Warren suffered a hamstring injury in the offseason that ultimately led to Warren missing time, playing hurt, and Najee came into the season healthy. Fast forward to present time and Warren looks fully healthy and is coming off four consecutive performances where he eclipsed this line, and is averaging 14 touches.

Definitely a weather play for Thursday in Cleveland with wind and sleet/rain/snow expected. Jameis Winston has easily topped this in his three starts, but the Steelers have held MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels Under this number in back-to-back weeks where there was no weather issue.

The Steelers are rolling right now, and the Browns are nearing quit-mode. I expect the Pittsburgh defense to once again be dominant and force the Browns into multiple mistakes. Chris Boswell has been the best kicker in the business this year and he could be the difference in Pittsburgh entering half time with a field goal (or more) lead on Thursday night.

As much as I'd like this line to be -3, I don't think it'll get there so I'll scoop up the -3.5 at a nice price. This Browns team has yet to completely crater, but we saw signs of it when they got pushed around last week against New Orleans. The Steelers find ways to win and I don't think the bad weather is going to affect them as much as it affects Jameis Winston and company. Look for some bully-ball from the Steelers on Thursday as they continue to march up the AFC Standings and toward an AFC North crown.

The Browns have allowed 6 TDs to WR in the last 4 games, when their defense has fallen apart. It was inevitable that would happen with hos pathetic the offense has been. On a short week, now, I don't expect much. They are vulnerable to play action and Pickens is the guy who is killing teams on those deep shots. Has 2 TDs in 4 games with Wilson. His size is a problem on those moonballs/

The Steelers have a No 1 WR with Pickens since Russell Wilson took over at QB. Browns are terrible the last 4 weeks since the D has collapsed and pass rush fallen off - allowing 10.9/att to WR in that span (31st). Opposer passing rating of 111.3 in that span (30th). Pickens has at least 74 yards receiving in all four games with Wilson. Browns will have their hands full defending the run game and doubt they just sit back and zone it up. He continues to rack of explosive plays on play action with the new QB there.

The Browns secondary is a mess right now. Over their last 4 games they are allowing a 111.3 passer rating (30th in the NFL) and getting torn up by receivers with size. Pickens has quickly become adept at catching moon balls from Russell Wilson and is over this in 3 of 4 games with him and Russ loves taking deep play action shots to him. Just caught 8 balls on the Ravens on a day when not much was there for the Steelers in the passing game. This bond is growing.

The Browns are 27th in run D EPA the last 4 games and are allowing 5.1/carry and it's the speed and change of pace guys who are killing them lately (JK Dobbins went 14-85 and Taysom Hill 7-138-3 in last 2 games). Warren is a lot like them, and Warren went for 88 and 145 from scrimmage vs the vaunted '23 Browns D and in a short week Najee Harris might have slow legs with the heavy load he has carried. Russell Wilson will target him plenty, too.

The Steelers ground out an impressive win over the Ravens thanks to excellent defense, but what wasn't impressive was failing to score a TD (for the second time in a win this year) against a Ravens defense that has struggled to defend the pass. Pittsburgh was outgained by 2 yards per play in the win, while the Browns offense looked good despite the blowout loss to the Saints. That came down to an awful effort by the Cleveland defense, but they've typically been good at limiting points per drive so I could see a rebound in what might be a bad-weather game. This is too many points for Pittsburgh to lay on the road in a divisional game, and I'd take anything above 3.

The Browns don't really do the close loss thing. When they lose - which they do all the time - they lose. They are 3-7 ATS and they have losses by: 21. 17. 7. 4. 21. 4. 6. 16. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Steelers. Mike Tomlin's team is 8-2 ATS and 9-4 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Browns are pretty much mailing it in and while they may muster a fight against their top rival, Steelers are too good and too deep for them. Defense will cause major issues for Jameis. Steelers dominate TOP, turnover battle and have superior defense and special teams. Can win by a TD without playing their best.

This is down two points since Sunday. Every trend to the under here. Steelers are beat up after a physical game with Ravens and on a short week, I expect another choppy defensive performance. Whatever is left of Browns defense, we’ll see the best of it here vs the rival at home. Browns can’t score – tied for last with 15 offensive TDs – and Steelers are best scoring D in NFL and just shutdown the vaunted Ravens. Steelers 8-5 to under on road since ’23, games averaging 37.5 points (31st). Browns 9-4-1 to under at home since ’23, averaging 38.4 points (28th). This series is 7-3 to the under in last 10 meetings. Played one game at 29 last year; this could be another.