Justin Herbert has continued to have a yearly decline in average passing yards per game since 2021. This year it is all the way down to 210 yards per game. Yet, the Chargers easy schedule has largely been a reason, along with a better emphasis on ball control under Coach Harbaugh. Tonight, look for a bit of increase in yardage from Justin Herbert in a prime time spot and for Ladd McConkey to benefit. Take his over.

There’s a lot of belief here in the Chargers under Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert leading, but there’s a lot to like about the Bengals getting Tee Higgins back in a must-win road spot. Everyone knows the second half is when Cincinnati usually kicks into gear, and Joe Burrow has been nails of late with 9 TD and 1 INT in his last two games. Los Angeles has made its hay beating up on lesser offenses. Its most recent losses are to Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. While the Chargers are better offensively, they won’t test the Bengals like the Ravens and Eagles (their only losses since September). I’ll take the point-plus for my trouble but would be comfortable with Cincy straight up, too.

We haven't seen the Chargers tested by a lot of elite offenses and the Bengals offense is certainly heating up. I expect both teams to move the ball through the air in a back and forth affair. Adding Tee Higgins to the lineup certainly helps. This Chargers defense is solid, but will look a lot different against an elite quarterback.

J.K. Dobbins' rushing attempts prop has fallen from 14.5 to 12.5 as many expect Gus Edwards' role to increase in his second game back from IR. Dobbins has slumped, averaging 3.5 yards per carry since Week 3. In the past four games, Dobbins has gotten loose only against the lowly Browns. Go Under and look for the Chargers to lean more heavily on Justin Herbert to win.

Joe Burrow has only thrown 4 interceptions this season. He is coming off a monster game last week (34/56, 428 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT). Burrow is having a fantastic season despite his team’s ugly record, and I expect him to stay hot in Primetime. I have the Bengals beating the Chargers tonight, and I see them doing it behind a masterful game from Burrow. Burrow has only thrown picks in 4/10 games this season, giving us value at -105 odds here.

The Chargers have yet to allow any opponent to score more than 20 points this season. Although this Bengals offense might be their toughest test to date, I’m not necessarily expecting a barnburner. Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh employs a run-heavy style on offense, looking to control time of possession and turn the game into a rock fight. The Chargers are 7-2 to the Under this season, and 3-1 to the Under at home. The Bengals run defense has shaped up with DT’s BJ Hill & Sheldon Rankins back (who are both ‘Questionable’ tonight). If Hill and/or Rankins plays, I like this Under even more. This total moved from 45 to 48.5 through some key numbers, so I will now grab Under 48.5.

The Bengals have not been good against tight ends, while Willie D is now a huge part of what the Chargers want to do on offense. I’ll admit to wrestling with whether I wanted the catches or the yards but ultimately settled on the yards.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is 13-5 ATS as a road underdog for his career, and 5-0 ATS on the road this season. WR Tee Higgins will return tonight, making this Bengals offense dangerous. Although the Chargers defense has been impressive, they have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. They’ve certainly benefited from seeing some of the league’s weaker QB’s (Bryce Young, Will Levis, Jamies Winston, Gardner Minshew, etc). The Bengals defense has been burnt this year, but mostly by top-tier offenses (Ravens, Commanders, Eagles). The Chargers have struggled to get QB pressure, and Burrow picks apart zone defenses. Considering the trends, I’m forced to bet the Bengals as road dogs on Sunday Night Football.

Will Dissly has emerged as the Chargers TE1 and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He does not have a touchdown yet this season, but has been targeted in the red zone five times. Dissly also has a great matchup on Sunday night against the Bengals. The Bengals have given up the 2nd most touchdowns to tight ends this season. While this is a long shot, I love the price at +425 for Dissly's Anytime Touchdown, and I'll be wagering a .25 unit on it.

The Chargers' defense is not as good as it has looked while facing the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing pass attacks. However, it is good enough to get a few stops here. I like Jim Harbaugh's team to get to 7-3 because of LA's offensive balance. Rashawn Slater can hold up well enough against Trey Hendrickson, and a fully healthy Justin Herbert (11 TDs, 1 INT) should continue his sparkling play against the NFL's 26th-ranked defense in passing efficiency. The Bengals also rank 29th in rushing defense efficiency. Back LA, which has the coaching edge, in a tight one.

The Chargers are 6-3 on the season and 2-7 to the under with an orchestrated defense that keeps the game scoring down but they're in trouble this week against a real quarterback in Joe Burrow. They faced one real quarterback this season and they lost to Patrick Mahomes. Burrow’s feeling it at the moment, in the last two games he's thrown for nine touchdowns and one interception. This bet is on Joe Burrow scoring and the Chargers not being able to keep up. Bengals to win.

The Bengals head into this game off the minibye and desperate for a win at 4-6, but I'm going to fade them anyway. The Chargers are the top scoring defense in the league while the Bengals rank 27th in points per game, so I have to have a lot of faith in their offense on the road to take them here. With Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown still banged up, I don't see how you can have that much faith they'll be the first team to score more than 20 against the Chargers this year. While the Chargers have played a relatively easy schedule, they're also winning by margin, which makes me more confident in the quality of the team.

What do Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis WInston, and Will Levis have in common? They're the QBs the Chargers have beaten in their six wins to date. At this rate, will a Mountain West foe be waiting on deck? They wish, as instead it's the hungry and hard-luck Bengals, with three losses already by a combined 5 points (two vs. Baltimore, one vs KC), and the Joe Burrow-JaMarr Chase connection is a lot more than the Charger D has had to deal with lately. Consider, too, that in the Bolts' three losses (vs. the Steelers, Chiefs, and Cards), they tallied a measly 11.7 ppg. Here is where the Chargers' luck runs out and Cincy reignites a playoff push. Play Bengals

The Chargers run game has grown more tepid since the first month of the season and Herbert's dropbacks have soared. In the last 5 games he is averaging 262 yards/game. He has 237 or more in 4 of the last 5 games and 279 in 3 of the last 5. The Bengals D has gotten better since the beginning of the season but it's still suspect. Bengals are allowing 220/G, but have allowed opposing QBs to go over this in 4 of the last 6 games (facing Lamar Jackson twice in that span is a challenge).

Chargers game finally went over 40 last week, with Titans scoring in extreme garbage time. LAC best scoring D in the NFL; will expose Bengals issues at tackle and keep them in third-and-long. Cincy has destroyed the terrible Ravens D but struggled lately vs the Browns, Giants and Eagles. Expect the Bengals to try to take away the deep stuff and let JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards be plowhorses in the run game. Outside of getting gashed by the Ravens, Cincy D has been more solid lately. Chargers play at a super slow pace. Jim Harbaigh on a 27-12 run to the under. Their home game totals: 44, 34, 27, 32. Chargers games avg 33.8 points, 4 less than any team.

The LA Chargers have several advantages in important defensive metrics, including net yards per play, total yards allowed per game, red zone defense, third-down efficiency, run defense, and net yards per pass attempt. Additionally, LA boasts stronger special teams and ranks six spots higher in DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule. There is another essential factor for this game. The Ravens played the Bengals on November 7th, and I believe the Harbaugh brothers share insights about common opponents when they speak on the phone. According to my betting model (not power rankings), the Chargers should be favored by 3.9 points, assuming Tee Higgins & Orlando Brown Jr. are back for the Bengals. I like the home team quite a bit!

I know Bengals are 5-0 ATS on road, but tough test here. Recently vs NYG, CLE, PHI, Cincy scored 6 total offensive TDs, failed to crack 305 net yards. Their 28th run D EPA and 32nd Success Rate will be a problem vs physical Chargers team. Chargers OC Greg Roman can scheme vs their D from time with Ravens. LAC top scoring D in the NFL, Justin Herbert dominating last 5 weeks. LAC 6-2-1 ATS and Bengals lack of effective run game will be an issue. Chargers will generate a heavy rush on Burrow who the Ravens battered with their limp group of edge rushers. Give me Jim Harbaugh at home in prime time. Bengals 4 wins are vs teams with 9 total victories.