The Chargers disappointed last week against the Cardinals, which makes them appear even more valuable in this spot. Spencer Rattler is still under center for the Saints, which means points should be hard to come by against an L.A. defense that is as stingy they come (first in points, seventh in yards). The Chargers are no longer loaded offensively, but Ladd McConkey is coming on alongside Joshua Palmer, and J.K. Dobbins has been immensely efficient. New Orleans has allowed 26+ points in four straight games, and I don’t see it scoring three touchdowns.

Justin Herbert has thrown the ball more lately ... and they still can't score. Jim Harbaugh just wants to crush souls in the run game. Failed to come close vs a suspect Cards D. Saints rush D is even worse - allowing opponents to rush for 5.9/carry or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Since Week 3 they allow 6.0/carry and are 32nd in EPA vs run (-23.37) and success rate (46.9%). LAC still without some key pieces in pass game; lean on a FB and extra OL and get Medieval on 'em. Or just gut them out of 11 personnel and spread looks, which Dobbins loves. Saints allowing 7.2/carry out of 11 since Week 3, over .5 yard worse than anyone else.

The Saints appear to be getting healthier, but the Chargers may have Joey Bosa back as well. If those are a wash, and I don't think they are if the Saints have Chris Olave and Taysom Hill back, I don't get the move from a lookahead line of 6.5. Yes, the Saints were terrible against the Broncos, but this should be a better lineup, particularly on the offensive side. We also have an extreme rest advantage for the Saints with the Chargers playing a late Monday game, giving their injured players one fewer day to get healthy. I'll presume we get a healthier Saints team and get in on this line before it comes down.

The Chargers settled for five field goals and lost to Arizona, 17-15, on Monday night. I like them to bounce back strong against the crumbling Saints, who likely will start rookie Spencer Rattler again. He's averaging 5.5 yards per attempt and has taken 11 sacks in two games. New Orleans has given up 136 points in the past four games and just lost impact corner Paulson Adebo (3 INTs) to IR. The Saints are giving up 5.9 yards per carry over their last three games.

Both these teams are dealing with major injuries and limited offensively. Every LAC game has gone under this total, and their games average 31.5 points, by far lowest in NFL. Jim Harbaugh runs slowest offense in NFL, bleeds clock and will be content to run vs soft D here. Chargers RZ offense is 30th and Saints rarely even get there. Both have conservative coaches who settle for FGs. Harbaugh 25-11 to under in last 36. Saints 7-5 to under on road since '23. Saints scored just 86 points last 5 games and very compromised at QB. Need to run ball and try to prevent more embarrassment and try to keep it close.

I literally just won a bet fading the Chargers on Sunday night, but that game could have gone either way. I was impressed with Justin Herbert manufacturing almost 350 passing yards with mostly backup WRs and I think they'll generate even more offense (on the ground and through the air) against a Saints team that has major injury issues. It's certainly possible that Derek Carr is back this week, but I'm not expecting it. Even if Carr is back, the OLine is in shambles, WRs are hurt and the defense continues to take on injuries. Lay the big number in a bounce back spot for LAC.