Hitting a key number for the Ravens makes this a deadline play. Baltimore boasts an explosive offense that should control this game on the ground against a Cleveland defense that boasts solid numbers but has yet to play an opponent as balanced. Conversely, Baltimore's pass defense is truly terrible. While Jameis Winston will be a clear upgrade over Deshaun Watson, he is still immensely turnover prone as a gunslinger ... and ... to whom exactly will he be throwing the football? Nick Chubb is back but clearly not yet in a groove. Look for the Ravens to lead steadily throughout and shut down the Browns late icing the game late with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is also a great teaser leg now.

Never thought I'd say this, but Jameis Winston is an upgrade on Deshaun Watson for the Browns. And Winston might have a big day against a thinned-out Baltimore secondary down to these four cornerbacks: Brandon Stephens (7 starts this year), Jalyn Armour-Davis (activated off IR on Saturday), Arthur Maulet (making season debut) and Bump Cooper Jr. (practice squad elevation making NFL debut). Cleveland should be able to hang within seven in a home rivalry game and Baltimore on a short week.

Ravens have the best run D in the NFL and Nick Chubb is still rounding into shape. Browns figure to be trailing in this game and perhaps by a lot, and all Jameis wants to do is sling it around, anyway. A terrible Ravens secondary is now down 2 of its top 3 corners. Baker Mayfield just threw for 3 on them, and no defense is worse in garbage time/4th quarter than Baltimore. Some of these deep shots will pay off with big gains and PI calls to set them up in the RZ. Even if he throws a few picks it won't stop the intent. He pushes this game over.

The Ravens are banged in the secondary and Cleveland's offense should get a much-needed boost from the activation of gin-slinging journeyman Jameis Winston at QB. Look for the Browns to show some needed fight in this one.

No matter how poorly the Browns are faring, we are always a bit wary about these AFC North battles that often more resemble upheavals of nature. Still, Cleveland remains a very hard sell at the moment, especially with Kevin Stefanski forced into using Jameis Winston at QB, likely for the rest of the season, after Deshaun Watson's Achilles tear (not that Watson was having a good season, which he most certainly wasn't). Besides, we'd just rather ride the Ravens, unbeaten SU and vs. the line their last five (many did push the Washington game two weeks ago) and with King Derrick Henry on pace to break Eric Dickerson's single season rushing mark of 2105 yards set back in the great year of 1984. Play Ravens

Derrick Henry obviously has been marvelous but big number. A 20-carry, 90-yard outing would be a fine day for any back, and we'd win this bet pretty easily. I'm not sure Henry gets to 96 (even if capable of doing it on one run) without at least one fairly long one. No tailback has gotten to 70 yards on Cleveland this year.

Do I think Jameis Winston throws a pick on Sunday vs. Baltimore? Yep. But this price is pretty good value not to. The Ravens will likely be down top corner Marlon Humphrey, who is second in the league with four INTs.

Second-year Browns wideout Cedric Tillman is in a perfect spot Sunday. He has a more competent quarterback in Jameis Winston, is facing a Ravens secondary missing All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey, and the Browns are expected to be playing catch-up. In addition, Tillman led all NFL wideouts last week in first-read targets (10) and ranked third in air yards (126), per analyst Jake Tribbey. With Amari Cooper traded to Buffalo, Tillman should continue seizing his opportunity.

Ravens All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey is doubtful, boosting the matchup for new Browns starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston also should benefit from a relatively healthy offensive line. When laying over a touchdown, the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens are just 2-10 ATS over the past four seasons. Baltimore is playing its second straight road game, on a short week. Grab the points as Cleveland gets a boost from Deshaun Watson's absence.

The moment has finally arrived, Jameis Winston is starting at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. While he may throw an interception or two, we know he can put up big numbers. The best part about this play is his opponent. The Ravens will likely be playing with a lead, forcing Winston to throw more. The Ravens are also the 2nd biggest pass funnel in the NFL and a secondary we want to attack.

Jackson has been under this mark in four games this year, all Ravens wins where they were up by at least 10 late in the fourth quarter. In other words, games the Ravens won handily, even if some garbage time TDs were given up by the Ravens defense. Here's another game where the Ravens are huge favorites. Only three QBs went over 25 pass attempts against the Browns this year, and those were in the first three games of the season. The sentiment is that the Ravens will eventually crack the Browns defense and not need Jackson to throw a lot. Jackson has under 24 pass attempts in each of his past three against Cleveland.

Cedric Tillman hadn't played much on the year, until last week, when he caught 8 of 12 targets for 81 yards. I think we're going to see consistent targets Tillman's way thanks to Amari Cooper's departure and to the fact that Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are consistently underwhelming. This will be a negative game script for Jameis Winston and Tillman should be one of his primary targets. Expect Tillman to be one of a few bright lights in a dark season for the Browns.

Now with a competent quarterback in Cleveland once again (Jameis Winston), look for Njoku to explode. He led the Browns with a 27% target share and 14 targets last week and should feast on a Baltimore defense that gave up 95+ yards to three TEs this season (Bowers, Ferguson, Otton). I would be mildly surprised if he didn't top 60 yards and would consider laddering this to 80 in a game where Cleveland should be behind and throwing often.

The Ravens are destroying teams on the ground with Derrick Henry out of heavy personnel (21, 22, 12, 13) - Browns have seen 5th most carries out of those groupings and are 1st in EPA vs it, allowing just 3.4/carry. Henry averages just 3.1 YPC vs Browns in his career. But CLE is 31st vs spread runs out of 11 personnel (6.2/carry), and 28th in EPA. LJ has 18 runs for 137 yards (7.6) out of 11, while Henry has 20 for 102. Browns are 23rd in EPA defending scrambles. This total is ticking up, rightfully so, but enough to scare me off given this matchup.

Hill is adept at turning nothing into to something and Lamar Jackson is embracing the screen game like never before. Browns are top team in NFL by far stopping rushing out of heavy packages, which could mean more spread formations out of 11 personnel with the speed back there to do damage vs the blitz. Shows up redzone and 2:00 offense and vs these pass rushers may see an uptick in usage. At least 3 targets in 6 of his last 10 games and at least 9 routes run in 10 straight games. On road vs a tough D that can get serious pressure, expect plenty of Hill on the field.

The Ravens cannot defend TEs and their pass defense sucks overall and is especially horrible in the fourth quarter when teams throw with volume - which should be the game script here. No Amari Cooper anymore and Njoku can stretch field and get plenty of YAC to help us get over. Four of the last six starting TEs to face BAL and see a target have gone over this (all have gone over 68 rec yards) and Dalton Kincaid came up just short at 47. Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Jake Ferguson and Brock Bowers soared over this total. Expect double-digit targets from Jameis Winston here.

Njoku benefitted greatly from the move to Joe Flacco at QB last year, and Jameis Winston loves to push ball downfield to TEs in the seam, also. No risk it, no biscuit. Saw 14 TAR and 10 rec last week with Watson injured, and Njoku is over this in 3 of his last 4 against the Ravens. BAL LB's suck in coverage, they can't defend the middle of the field and have allowed 45 receptions to TEs, most in the NFL. Ravens have no 1 run D in NFL, Ravens put up points quickly and Famous Jameis will be chucking it around. Plenty of garbage time potential. Cade Otton caught 8 of 10 for 100 on Mon night vs BAL.

Jameis Winston is now at the helm for the Cleveland Browns and let’s not forget that once upon a time he threw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. Winston is simply a friend to be over. Add in the fact that Baltimore‘s offense is rolling and their defense is a little banged up and I’ll play the total over.

A year ago the Browns were best D in EPA in NFL and Ravens offense was a shell of what it is now, and BAL still scored 59 in two games vs CLE. Ravens are a monster on ground and through air, and are 9-3 to over on road since start of last season, going over by 5.21/G (3rd most), averaging 47.25 points. They are 6-1 over this season, by average of 9.29/G (2nd) averaging 56.86 points (1st). Browns offense will open up with Jameis Winston slinging it deep like Flacco did, and Ravens have worst 4th qtr D in NFL (allowing 25 more points than anyone else), so garbage time should help us out plenty. Every Ravens game this season is over this total.