The self-destructing Jags finally broke through last week with their first win of the season, despite blowing a late 2-TD lead against the Colts. But we believe they will build on this positive step with a won against a surging Bears team that has won two straight. But Chicago is depleted with secondary injuries, and the Jags went 2-0 on Lindon last year. Look for them to make it three straight there.

There is a myth that Trevor Lawrence is a running quarterback. But this year at least, there is a different narrative. His median and mean carries are at two and he has not hit 4 in any game this year. Barring kneel downs or an atypical game script, he will go under.

I typically look towards the Under when teams go abroad. The Under is 25-21 in NFL international games, and we hit on Vikings-Jets in London last week so back to the well we go. This Bears defense has been top-tier, and although the Jaguars defensive unit has been quite the opposite, I don't think Bears QB Caleb Williams will exploit it. I'm still not a believer, and I feel this Chicago team is a bit overrated. The Bears are 2-0 to the Under on the road, and the Jaguars are 2-0 to the Under when the game total is lower than 45. The public bets are heavily skewed towards the Over, but the market doesn't seem to be respecting it at all.

The public seems to love the Bears in this spot, but the market has only moved towards the Jaguars. I am not ready to buy in on QB Caleb Williams after one good performance against a an injury-ridden/league-worst Panthers team. The Jaguars defense won't inspire too much confidence here, but this team's experience playing in international games does. This experience will be totally new to the Bears coaching staff. Chicago's defense has been very strong, and many are still down on Jags QB Trevor Lawrence. However, I believe he can roll off of last week's momentum, which was his best game yet (28/34, 371 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 Int). More than anything, the reverse line movement in the market is too strong to ignore.

It's been a relatively slow start for No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze. But I like him to clear this prop total with room to spare against a Jags defense starting Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown at corner. (Tyson Campbell remains out). Darby has given up a 135.1 passer rating, Brown a 95.1 rating, and collectively the Jags are allowing the most receiving yards per game to wideouts.

Christian Kirk has put together three strong games in a row, but I'm fading his targets in this matchup. The Bears, thanks to Kyler Gordon, have been tough against slot receivers. And Evan Engram's expected return should cut into Kirk's opportunities. With how good Chicago has been defending the pass, I'm expecting a balanced Jacksonville attack in which Kirk falls short of five catches.

It took some time to sort out this backfield, but the Bears are starting to look like an NFL offense and Swift is starting to look like his old self. He faces a pathetic D here that has allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to RB in the NFL. Swift has a long of 14+ in 3 of the last 4 games and has at least 22 yards receiving in four straight games. Injuries to Jags LBs have left them very vulnerable and WIlliams has been plenty content to take the layups and checkdowns with his OL struggling so much against the blitz. Swift is 4th on team in routes run and first on Bears in yards/route over the last 3 weeks.

Moore has a good connection going with Caleb Williams now, and he gets to face a terrible secondary here that also doesn't generate a ton of pass rush. Keenan Allen is still trying to find his way, and downfield receivers have given the Jags fits. And Jags have second worst pass rating allowed on targets to WRs in the NFL. Top guys go off on them and they're 28th in yards/attempt. They've given up the fourth-most completions of 25+ to WRs in the NFL. Moore could have back-to-back 100 yards games here.

DJ Moore and Caleb Williams are coming off their best games of the season and I like their chances of keeping momentum rolling in what is a fantastic matchup on paper. The Jags lack a consistent pass rush, in addition to playing the most man coverage in the NFL. This bodes well for Moore who has been exceptional against man coverage.

The Jags offense has largely stunk except against the Colts, who they own at home. These teams are 6-4 to the under. Jags have played 6 straight unders in London, going under by 7 points on average (avg total 37.8 points). Bears D is legit almost across the board, except for vs the run but Jags can't run. Four of Bears games are under this total and 3 of Jags games. Trevor Lawrence is 9-5 to under vs the NFC (avg close of 45.5, so in this ballpark). London games are 20-8 to the under since 2019, producing an average of 40 points. The Jags D gives me pause but should be able to zone things up enough to keep us under.