Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
The Packers disappointed in Jordan Love’s return last week, and their thinning receiving corps is concerning against a Rams team that will require you to score 24+ points to beat them. However, Tyler Kraft has proven to be a valuable asset for Love, and Matt LaFleur has been tremendous adjusting his scheme in the early part of this season. Green Bay nearly came back against a tough Minnesota defense last week; it should have no issue here with Los Angeles – even on the road. The Rams are just too limited on offense (due to their injuries) to take them in this spot.
With his top two receivers and a pair of O-linemen still out, QB Matthew Stafford must be wondering about the retired life. He is not mobile enough to make plays on his own. While the Packers cope with their own injuries, they are better equipped to weather them, especially with depth at WR to fill in for Christian Watson. Green Bay, ranked second in rushing, should chew up ground yardage against the Rams' suspect run defense. For what it's worth -- a little, maybe? -- Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 4-0 straight-up against Stafford and L.A. coach Sean McVay.
The Rams give up the highest passer rating in the NFL and play zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate. The Packers are down Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs (suspension). In the two games Reed has played with Jordan Love, he's erupted for 138 and 139 receiving yards. And the vast majority of his receiving yards has come versus zone coverage.
The Rams are limping into their bye week and will likely struggle to keep up in this matchup. Jordan Love should carve up a Rams defense that ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play. The line for this game should be Packers -4.5.
I was admittedly not the biggest fan of the Packers signing Josh Jacobs in the offseason, however he has been very good through the first quarter of the season and you could make a strong argument he has been the Packers best skill position player. Now he gets to face a Rams defense that has surrendered the most yards to opposing RBs this season. RBs are averaging a whopping 5.0 YPC against LA. Look for GB to lean heavily on their ground game in what is a significant mismatch.
Love finally started to look like himself in the second half last week, coming back from an injury suffered in Week 1. And that was against the best D in the NFL. The Rams are allowing over 9 yards per attempt and have major issues on defense. Love will have time to operate and this should be a get right spot for him. This kid has MVP stuff. I like him in a sterile environment in what might sound like a Packers home game. Will get plenty of easy YAC vs this defense, too.
Jordan Love might have come back a little too soon from his injury but by the second half last week he looked pretty damn good. And he’s getting to face a defense that is dead last in yards/attempt allowed and 31st in scoring defense. And he will do it under perfect playing conditions. We are getting value here on a true Super Bowl contender after a tough start against a an opponent that is running out of players. Matt LaFleur has had his buddy Sean McVay’s number (beat him four times including the playoffs, all by at least eight points) and Green Bay has covered nine straight against the Rams, averaging 28 PPG in the process. The bottom might be falling out for the Rams.
Jordan Love returned to action last week with an up-and-down performance, throwing four TDs and three interceptions. Now he goes from facing one of the league's best defense to a unit that ranks last in yards per play and net yards per pass attempt allowed, and I expect the Packers to run up the score on the turf at SoFi Stadium. On the other side, the Packers defense has been great at generating turnovers, so I don't know how Matthew Stafford keeps up without his top receivers available. The Rams are eyeing a Week 6 bye to get healthy, while the Packers are in must-win mode after dropping a winnable game to the division leader. Packers roll in this one.