Kyle Pitts has seen his target share increase, and on Sunday he faces a Saints defense missing linebacker Demario Davis (hamstring). Davis is excellent in coverag; the Falcons should look to attack the middle of the field with Pitts.

The New Orleans Saints must recover after a poor showing offensively in last week’s home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. With a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football the game plan is going to center on their defense. Atlanta is already 0-2 at home and there seems to be a lack of synergy to finish out a game. Take the Saints to manage through their injuries against the Falcons.

I started the week with the under in mind, especially after Mooney went way over four receptions last week. My initial worry was that Atlanta's depleted offensive line wouldn't be able to protect Kirk Cousins well enough for him to take downfield shots to Mooney, who's average depth of target is a team-high 9.83. But those injuries might help Mooney -- last week they changed his role and his average depth of target was 3.0 yards! He had FIVE targets thrown forward but behind the line of scrimmage. And when both Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary were out last week, Mooney still had five targets including three easy ones behind the line of scrimmage with two more inside 15 air yards.

The offensive lines on both teams came out of their previous games wrecked by injury, but while the Falcons won't have their center and right tackle for this game, the injury situation is much worse for the Saints. Not only are they down an elite center and quality guard, but top linebacker Demario Davis has been ruled out and their top two playmakers, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, are questionable. The Falcons have a blueprint to slowing down the Saints if Kamara and Olave play, and if they're out, Atlanta should be able to win by at least a field goal here.

Falcons -1.5 might be the best line we get if you're an Atlanta bettor. The Saints offensive explosions in weeks 1 & 2 still has them overvalued in my opinion. New Orleans came crashing back down to earth in week 3, mustering up just 12 points at home against a struggling Eagles secondary. The Saints were out-gained by over 200 yards, and QB Derek Carr threw for under 150 passing yards. Now he'll face the NFL's best safety duo Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates, and I don't see the Saints offense surging back to life. The Falcons should start to find their rhythm on offense. Back the better club here. The Saints are getting too much love.

The Falcons had this matchup circled since the Saints defeated them 48-17 in the last game of the 2023 season. The Saints extended their lead by scoring a late touchdown instead of running out the clock. Although a new coaching staff exists, many returning players are still on the team. Two key offensive linemen for the Saints, center Erik McCoy, and guard Cesar Ruiz sustained injuries in the Saints' narrow loss to the Eagles last Sunday. The final score is misleading, as Philadelphia outgained New Orleans by 241 yards. Linebacker Demario Davis (seven straight seasons with 100+ tackles) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday. The Falcons are ranked second in strength of schedule, while New Orleans is ranked 27th.