It was obvious last week that Jordan Love would miss legitimate time, so the hemming and hawing about his availability entering this game was odd. There is a drastic quarterbacking edge the Colts hold with Anthony Richardson vs. Malik Willis, and I’m not sure much else matters. Indianapolis will be able to put more effort into stopping the run giving Willis’ passing flaws, and Richardson should get plenty of opportunities even if he remains inefficient. The key will be preventing turnovers. The turnaround for Green Bay coming back from Brazil could also factor, though it does host with extra rest.

My biggest concern here is Malik Willis and how well he will adjust to being Green Bay's starter. For Reed, this number is attainable on one catch. And given the explosiveness he showed in Week 1, head coach Matt LaFleur would be a fool to not make a concerted effort to get him the ball early and often on Sunday.

This is a discount price to fade the club sending out the worst starting QB in Week 2. No doubt the Packers will have a simplified game plan for Malik Willis but this will cap their offensive ceiling. Moreover, a defense that yielded 410 yards and 34 points to the Eagles will struggle to limit Indy's varied attack.

Nobody ran less plays than the Colts last week. They only had 19 pass attempts and Mitchell still had five targets.. I think we might see 8 more pass attempts and I think Mitchell will get 6-7 targets and catch 3-4

The Packers are being coy about QB Jordan Love in action, dropping hints that he may play. Not buying it one week after a knee injury. Even if he answers the call, the Colts might lay claim to the better QB. Anthony Richardson was impressive in Indy's opening loss. He is a far cry better than Malik Willis, Green Bay's likely starter. Willis is a contender for least accomplished NFL backup at the position. With coach Shane Steichen, the Colts have covered in all three outings as road faves.

Never easy to win and cover in Green Bay, but this Packers team is severely outmatched at the quarterback position. Malik Willis in limited career action has a terrible completion percentage, turns the ball over and takes too many sacks. He was likely more of a project than anything for Green Bay and now he's being launched into action way earlier than expected against a solid Front 7. The Colts shaky secondary won't get exposed by Willis so expect the Colts to cover.

Taylor has spoken of wanting to do a Lambeau Leap in his return to Wisconsin. Based on the way the Packers defense allowed three touchdowns rushing last week, it wouldn't be surprise if he was able to jump into the stands multiple times. Getting this at plus-odds feels like a gift.

The former Wisconsin Badgers RB should have a field day against a Green Bay defensive line that was hemorrhaged by Saquon Barkley last week. Indianapolis should have the ball often and control the time of possession as don't expect Malik Willis to suddenly become a first rate NFL QB for the Packers. In a game that means more to him than most, a 100+ yard rushing day isn't out of the question for one of the league's best at his position.

We aren't huge on these kinds of props in general but looking at the Packers OL and looking at the Colts issues and considering that the Packers QB just got there a few weeks ago, this is a nice spot to see Jacobs get plenty of touches in the RZ. Colts allow rushing TDs in droves; hopefully Malik Willis doesn't vulture them.

Jacobs has a nose for the endzone and I have hard time thinking Matt Lafleur wants his backup QB, who hasn't been there that long, tossing it around in the redzone. Mali Willis can help run game with option ball, however, and Jacobs is also adept at catch and run in screen game. Colts D remains vulnerable vs the run and (26th in success rate since start of '23) with 23 rushing TDs allowed in that span (4th most in NFL). Should be a big Jacobs games.

Yeah, Jonathan Taylor has a nice TD streak going and he can finish drives, too. But we are big on Anthony Richardson making it happen himself, he's got 5 rushing TDs in 5 career games (he hasn't even finished some of them) the Packers D dealt with a lot of rushing volume in Week 1 and Saquan Barkley found paydirt three times. Inside the RZ Richardson is a unique weapon on the run. Can run over you or by you. I don't think we are going to get this price for long.

The Colts held their own against the Texans in Week 1, but their 27 points was built on a few long passes and a blocked punt rather than sustained offense as Anthony Richardson completed nine passes and Jonathan Taylor rushed for three yards a pop. The market has adjusted this game down 8.5 points with the downgrade from Jordan Love to Malik Willis, which is one of the more severe QB downgrades we've seen in the market in recent history. That and an inconsistent Colts offense going on the road in a tough environment makes me think the market has gone too far, especially now that we're through the 3.

While the Colts defense had its issues vs Houston in the run game, I came away impressed with their ability to apply pressure. I expect them to be much better in fitting the run vs Green Bay. Malik Willis has a chance to change the perception around his game, but this is a tough matchup for him to do so.