If we push, we push but Justin Fields will start for Pittsburgh at QB and he's obviously mega-turnover prone compared to the injured Russell Wilson. Starting guard Isaac Seumalo is also out. The Falcons could be one of the NFL's most improved teams from last year, when they weren't even that bad, with the additions of Kirk Cousins, Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons.

Each team begins the season with new quarterbacks. Pittsburgh struggled last season scoring as did Russell Wilson when he was a member of the Broncos. They rely heavily on their defense and to bring the pressure with a healthy TJ Watt. Even though Kirk Cousins is a veteran, Atlanta will be breaking in a new regime and may have some growing pains against this reliable Steelers defense. Seven of Pittsburgh’s last 10 road games have gone under the total when the total is less than 44.

London’s median is about 7 targets per game. Fen if it climbs to 8 or 9 getting 6 catches is unlikely, especially since he will draw the elite JPorter at CB. This won’t last

Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 80-56 to the Under when playing on the road. Atlanta made it a point to improve their defense, and made big splashes adding Safety Justin Simmons and pass rusher Matthew Judon. The Steelers will be running a new offense, with a new QB, and without their starting Left Guard. The Falcons are in the same position, adapting to a QB and coaching change. Kirk Cousins could start slow coming off his ACL injury, and this Steelers defense remains hard-nosed and filled with veterans. Steelers road Unders have been a cash cow, and Week 1 looks like another prime spot for one.

Kirk Cousins is back a little more than 10 months removed from a torn Achilles, an injury that should make him scramble even less than he already does. He's topped 2 rushing yards in just 10 of his 25 games since the start of 2022, and he may go full Tom Brady after the Achilles injury and never run. In the event he does get one run just over this total, we also have kneeldowns in play for the favored home team.

After a ragged preseason, the Steelers are seeking some competence at QB that neither Russell Wilson (named the starter for the opener, unless his ankle woes as listed on the injury report prove otherwise) nor Justin Fields seemed to offer in August. But what of Atlanta? The Falcs seem to be getting a bit much respect here as they accomplished nothing in preseason, either. Not to mention playing for a new HC in Raheem Morris, whose credentials are a bit dubious after a past failure a decade ago at Tampa Bay. Mike Tomlin has succeeded as an underdog before (he's 11-5 his last 16 reg-season games in that role), and Steel 9-2 in games decided by 7 or fewer last year! Play Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have owned the Falcons over the years winning and covering the last four meetings. The last one that the Falcons won was by three in 2006 which doesn't cover this game. But this might be the worst the Steelers have been for the opener since Bubby Brister and they were pretty good then. The difference for me in this game is Kirk Cousins because the Falcons already had a good team they just needed the quarterback. Bijan Robinson at running back is the key to go along with Drake London at receiver and Kyle Pitts at tight end. If someone could throw them the ball and not make mistakes that's a winning combination and that's Cousins. Falcons to cover.

I had zero interest in an ATS side of this game when it opened as nearly a pick'em with a slight not to Atlanta. Now, at +3.5, the value is on the Steelers in what will likely prove a pivotal matchup for both teams' season fortunes. Although the Falcons brought in a new coach and QB, their projections are a bit ambitious and this club has not been good at covering numbers as a favorite.

Kirk Cousins didn't play at all in the preseason off that torn Achilles tendon that ended his Vikings career and 2023 season early. I'd sure imagine that Cousins' new Falcons coaches have told him to not run the ball himself unless absolutely necessary -- especially early on. Cousins has never been that mobile regardless. His O/U rushing yardage total is 3.5, which I find humorous. And the Under is favored.

We still don't know how a 36-year old Kirk Cousins will fare coming off of an achilles injury. Coupled that with the fact that the Steelers will send non-stop pressure at him to find out. Pittsburgh is a great open field tackling team and will make things difficult for the Falcons passing game.

Take this now. Other books have it down below +500. This won’t last. Nice revenge spot and he may get several chances here

Im very bullish on Najee Harris heading into the season as the Steelers have invested heavily in their offensive line, in addition to bringing in Arthur Smith who may not be fit to be a HC, but has had success as an OC, specifically with RBs. Najee is in great shape and Jaylen Warren is dealing with a hamstring injury and not be 100% for week 1. Look for Najee to handle 15+ carries.

Steelers offense will be static with broken Russell Wilson and likely without Jaylen Warren and with a beat up OL. PIT was 6-3 to the under on the road last year, average an NFL-low 39 points. Kirk Cousins adds life to Falcons but he’s coming off major injury and Falcons have a rookie OC/play caller; another Sean McVay product. Mike Tomlin is 9-5 vs this family tree (McVay, Zac Taylor, Matt LaFreur) allowing just 19 PPG, just 319 total yards/G, just 59% completions and a 78.2 QB rating. Lot of new parts in Atlanta could lead to a slow start but scouts I trust loved Falcons adding Justin Simmons and Matt Judon late to their defense and expect immediate impact.