The Ravens averaged more than 37 points per game over their past four meaningful contests (Week 18 excluded) while showing an explosive offense that appears to be peaking. Houston can't be expected to duplicate last week's 45 points, but will do enough to help send this game Over the total.

Mark Andrews is out so let’s ride the position that simply puts up the right numbers. Add in the fact Houston is not great v the TE and bingo

At this time of year, we’re picking every game the rest of the way regardless of the level of our convictions. It’s the NFL playoffs, come on. Statistically, the Ravens stack up as a legitimately dominant team, and they are the best defense in the NFL against the deep ball, which is C.J. Stroud’s specialty and how he has taken out so many teams this season. The Texans have been solid stopping the run, but the Lamar Jackson element makes that task more difficult, especially given Houston struggles to stop play action. Houston is banged up while Baltimore is rested and home, plus the experience of John Harbaugh and his staff is a factor. Even if the Texans hang around, the Ravens should pull away.

Half of the six underdogs on wild card weekend won straight-up, which makes the case for a wide-open playoffs. Houston showed it belonged by ravaging Cleveland and its top-rated defense. QB C.J. Stroud can no longer be viewed as a rookie. Even as his receiving corps has been thinned out by injuries, Stroud has excelled and figures to keep the Texans in contention for most, if not all, of this matchup. Houston emerged surprisingly healthy from the win, while the Ravens must fill big shoes that belong to ailing TE Mark Andrews. Baltimore tends to allow big 'dogs to hang in, having covered just once in the past 10 scenarios when favored by seven-plus points.

It's a solid matchup for Likely against the Texans defense who don't do a great job limiting TE yardage. Matchups aside, with Mark Andrews out Likely has been great surpassing this total in 5 games in a row (I'm not counting Week 18 which was led by backup QB Tyler Huntley). Even with Zay Flowers and Odell on the field, I think we could see Likely lead this team in targets and I like him sailing over this number.

Are you aware that Lamar Jackson has "only" five rushing TDs this season? Perhaps the Ravens are simply trying to keep LJ from those extra hits at the goal line. Edwards had 13 rushing TDs in the regular season and scored in three straight until the meaningless finale.

All due respect to the Texans and CJ Stroud, who became a legit and dangerous NFL QB not long after opening week at Baltimore. Underestimating the Texans has proven risky, as they reminded once again last week vs. the Browns. And the playoff history of Lamar Jackson has hardly been stellar on the Baltimore side. But it's also three years since Jackson participated in the playoffs, and this Ravens edition demolished several competent teams this season at M&T Bank Stadium. The schedule also broke mostly well for Houston, and we can't get the vision of the Texans getting bullied at MetLife against the rugged Jets in similar tough conditions in December. Baltimore is one favored team we don't mind backing this weekend. Play Ravens

Nico Collins has emerged as a true No. 1 receiver, but Mike McDonald's defense will be ready to limit him. The Ravens allow an NFL-low 5.1 yards per pass attempt, and the conditions won't be ideal. Go Under.

Baltimore pass defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 5.1 yards per pass. The weather will also hamper the passing game with winds around 15-20 and temperatures in the low 20's. Play this one for 2 units.

Baltimore's pass defense is so good and the weather willl be horrible so Houston will have no other choice but to run the football.

The weather and Baltimore's defense are two great reasons to go under. The weather will be in the low 20's with 10-20 mph winds on a grass field.

This isn't pleasant as I've backed Nico Collins quite a bit this season. That being said this is as tough of a matchup as there is against a Ravens pass defense that is the best in the league. Baltimore ranks top three in EPA allowed per dropback, coverage grade, dropback success %, explosive pass %, and theyve been extremely stingy against 1st reads all season. Then you factor in this game is outdoors in cold weather and Houston really lacks another viable WR since Tank Dell has been on the shelf. The Ravens will allocate a lot of resources to slowing down Collins and possess the personnel and scheme to do so effectively.

This line is climbing with Mark Andrews most likely out. Outside of Week 18, Isaiah Likely has eclipsed this number in five straight games and is averaging almost four receptions. The Browns tight ends were the only players who found a lot of success against this Houston defense last week, and I expect similar success for Likely. Our Sportsline Model projects 52 yards.

With Mark Andrews still out in perhaps a minor surprise, this seems like (pun intended) a no-brainer play and probably only gets higher. Likely was +225 for anytime TD but dropped to +180 after the Andrews news. Our model has Likely with 52 yards or so.

It's looking more and more ...... likely that we don't get Mark Andrews in the Divisional Round, which means the backup tight end for Baltimore is going to be the starter again. Likely has been awesome for the Ravens in Andrews' absence and this price is too good to pass up.

With its current stable of running backs, Baltimore would be better off letting its MVP quarterback throw it all over the field on Saturday. Sure, the weather may not be perfect, but Lamar Jackson has been the league's most effective mid-range passer this year and the Texans can bleed yards to opposing pass catchers. Last weekend, Cleveland had four players over this number. Flowers also had 60 or more yards in three of his last four regular season games and a 9-78-0 line against Houston in Week 1. Expect a similar productive output in Baltimore's first playoff game on Saturday.

The Ravens are super-fresh (hopefully not rusty) and should come out with yet another excellent first half. While they've blown some leads, the Ravens have been dominant in the first half, covering 14 of 17 times while allowing an NFL-low 7.0 points. Look for Baltimore to lead at the break by at least a touchdown.

With Mark Andrews sidelined, Flowers emerged as Lamar Jackson's top target. Andrews may (or may not) return to action on Saturday, but I still like Flowers to go over here. The speedy wide receiver averaged 53.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season, and I have him projected to finish above 60 yards in this game. Take the over.

This total opened at 46, and early money has come in heavily on the Under. The number does seem suspiciously low, considering the Texans just dropped 45 points themselves against the Browns. However, Texans QB CJ Stroud has been able to thrive in indoor dome stadium environments. He will now head to frosty Baltimore, where game time temperatures are expected to be below 30 degrees, with 10+ MPH winds. This Ravens secondary is elite, and if the Texans cannot establish a ground game, Stroud might be stuck in "3rd and long" all game. Houston's defense is good against the run, and I expect them to play their safeties deep to take away the big plays. These factors will suppress scoring.

The Wild card matchup is skewing this line. As we've mentioned, the Browns defense on the road was one of the worst in the league and they played like they never scouted CJ Stroud. He only had 21 pass attempts and this team has been 50/50 pass:rush down the stretch. The Texans have had success with this, avoiding costly turnovers and playing conservative. If it’s close, then Houston will stick with pass/rush balance and avoid costly turnovers. If it’s a Ravens blowout, it will likely be because of a lot of three and outs by the Houston offense.

As strong as the Ravens defense is, they pick their battles. They focus on their secondary forcing turnovers, and they focus on the pass rush. Which is exactly what you want to do when you are defending a quarterback like CJ Stroud. But where they end up "sacrificing" is their run defense. They allow 4.5 YPC this season and over 119 yards on the ground overall, which is significantly higher than last year. Devin Singletary has gone over this total in 5 of his last 6 games. With Stroud's first outdoor game in quite some time and poor weather conditions, look for Singletary to get a lot of action.

Neither team hit 270 yards when they met Week 1, but they've evolved majorly since then. Texans stink against the pass and have one elite corner and a lot of question marks back there. Lamar Jackson and CJ Stroud are airing it out and scoring fast. Ravens average 32 PPG at home and their average home total was 49.7, over 7 points higher than their average close. Texans quick-strike attack can find weak spots in Ravens coverage - especially in middle of field. Stroud won't flinch, though his road splits give me some pause. Ravens scoring at home vs playoff teams w/Lamar: 56, 37, 31, 38, 25 (Week 1 vs Hou). Ravens Last 6 game totals at home w/Lamar: 75, 68, 54, 64, 40, 44.

Lamar Jackson has run at least 9 times for 54 yards in his last three playoff games. He will have the Texans on their heels with his ascendant play action passing and there will be running lanes when he decides to take off. He's averaged 9 rushes for 54 yards at home this season, and many of those games were blowouts where lets didn't have to activate. His longest rushes of the season came down the stretch fighting for the 1 seed, and he's won't be looking to quickly slide here. Even non-running QBs usually get a playoff spike. Without his two fastest/most elusive backs due to injury, in a must win game, I think he goes over this with relative ease

The Ravens pass D is elite ... except in the middle of the field, where their zones have been picked apart by some TE (and some mediocre ones at that). Texans OC Bobby Slowik came from SF, he will pay close attention to the SF film vs BAL, and Ravens had no answers for George Kittle in that game. Ravens 3rd and long D especially vulnerable to TEs. TEs like Smythe, Hudson, Everrett, McBride, Njoku (pre-Flacco) have sailed over this vs BAL in 2nd half of season. Schultz has 42+ in 4 of last 5 road games and is over this in 4 of the last 5 overall. Seam routes are a problem for Ravens as great as this defense is

Lamar threw 14 TD passes in eight home games and in 8 starts against playoff teams threw 16 TDs. This has become a heavy early-down passing team, the threat of run makes play action extremely dangerous and they are selling play action way more now under center. He's hit this in 3 straight home games (where his protection is much better) with 10 total in that span. From Week 11-17 (he sat Week 18), Lamar was 3rd with 14 TD passes. Texans led NFL only allowing 17 in regular season, but this is a unique QB who puts so much torque on a defense with his legs, arm and mind and I expect him to thrive on the big stag in a new offense.

The Ravens are all about taking shots early in games, on early downs, in play action. First and second down are throwing downs and this Texans defense is begging to get thrown on. LJ averages 9.77 air yards/att at home and 255 yards/G. Weather forecast doesn't look crazy windy. Texans were 27th in YPA allowed, and barely blitzed this season; if they chose to attack that way, it will be new to them. From Week 10-17 Lamar's 13 completions of 30+ yard were 4th, leads the NFL with 119.8 rating on 1st down, 2nd at 10.1 YPA, 6th in att, 2nd in TDs, 1st in 1st down/play action dropbacks. This ain't same ol BAL offense. Lamar averages over 9 YPA vs playoff teams.

Baltimore dominated the first game before we knew how good both teams were, and there's an argument that the market underrated the Ravens more despite the Texans' bigger outperformance of their projections. The Ravens have been historically great this season, and they've secured big wins against elite pass offenses like the 49ers and Dolphins. The Texans defense hasn't faced an offense that finished higher than 14th in yards per play since that Week 1 Ravens game, so they come into this difficult spot incredibly untested. Expect the Ravens offense to deliver a big performance, and the Texans will struggle to keep up in such a tough environment.