The Steelers are the only team with something on the line, meanwhile, belief is in a Ravens side sitting their stars because Baltimore has a deeper roster and is home. I don't doubt John Harbaugh will have his team geared up, but how long that will matter? Pittsburgh already won at full strength, and the weather is dreadful with icy rain. When the conditions get real nasty, will the Ravens remain fully engaged, and will Harbaugh actually risk injury for his remaining starters and key reserves? Tyler Huntley is solid, but he’s 3-5 a starter with more INTs than TDs. Just because Baltimore beat Pittsburgh in this scenario four years ago does not mean it will happen again. Don’t touch the Steelers past a FG.

Snoop Huntley loves throwing to TEs. To a fault. To the point where the league knew most targets were going to Mark Andrews in the past and those routes got jumped. Andrews is hurt and I don't think Isaiah Likely plays in this game and Kolar caught a TD in garbage time from Snoop last week. Huntley has 87 passes to Andrews in his career and not even 40 to anyone else. He has 7 career TD passes and 5 are to TEs. He won't fear PIT, has played in bigger spots and BAL will showcase him for free agency and take early-down, play-action shots. He loves the TE on the seam route and on the boundary. Kolar likely their leading receiver today

All to play for here on the Pittsburgh side, which has caught a huge break with the Ravens resting many key cogs (including Lamar Jackson) after wrapping up the top seed in the AFC playoffs last week. Now it's the Steelers who have the urgency, needing a win to keep their playoff hopes buoyant, after getting rescued the past two weeks by QB Mason Rudolph, who has steered back-to-back wins and stewarded an offense scoring 32 ppg in the process. Mike Tomlin has been able to rely on his run game, featuring Najee Harris and his 122 YR last week at Seattle, and remember that Pittsburgh won this matchup October 8 when Baltimore wasn't resting anyone, as it will today. Play Steelers

Warren is going to be a problem for the Ravens back-up D to defend all over the field. And while I have been burned before trying to figure out his role in the passing game - because he hasn't been featured enough - I like the scrimmage play here. Maybe he runs for 70 yards; maybe he has 50 yards receiving and 40 rushing. Regardless, the Steelers are running the ball a ton and running it well and Warren is a weapon in the screen game, too.

The revamped OL has helped both RBs, but arguably Warren the most. His outside runs have been explosive and his style will be a problem for the Ravens. Warren averages a ridiculous 6.3 yards/carry on pitch plays; the Ravens are 29h in the NFL defending pitch plays (6.8/carry) and a speed back shredded them on these plays last week. It's not uncommon for Warren to get 10 carries, and with the weather set to be dicey, I see them leaning into to elusiveness

The Ravens have had their hands full with TEs, even guys like Durham Smythe and a back-up like Davis Allen (Rams) who aren't household names, to say nothing of George Kittle. The Ravens back-ups will have issues defending the seam routes and the middle of the field, too. Freiermuth missed the first meeting, and his production has been sporadic, but there are soft spots in this zone D he can exploit. This is a very low number and a TE has topped this vs the Ravens in 7 straight games.

Do not take +3, on gameday there should be a +3.5 if not maybe +4. Pittsburgh must win and Baltimore has clinched the #1 seed so money should come in for Pittsburgh. Baltimore's John Harbaugh does a great job finding talent that fits his systems. His back up QB Tyler Huntley can make plays in their offense with no changes. The weather will be windy and rainy. Take the 3.5 with Baltimore for a double play.

The Steelers are in a must win situation. And that means stopping the Ravens from reaching the end zone. With Tyler Huntley on the field in the regular season, Justin Tucker has had 2 field goals in three of the four games. In their last 3 games, the Steelers are giving up just over 2 field goals on average.

This is an opportunity to audition for a chance to start elsewhere. Tyler Huntley is 90% as effective as Lamar Jackson between the 20s but 10% as effective in red zone or deep in their own side of field and we should see the same benefit of Todd Monken’s system positively impact Huntley as it did Lamar. Let's not forget this is the B squad that dominated the preseason.

It's been the George Pickens show the last few weeks. He's racked up 131 and 195 yards the past few weeks, accounting for 57% of the Steelers' targets. The oddsmakers have Mason Rudolph set at 200 passing yards, so even if Pickens yardage share drops in half, we should still see this cash. The Ravens are also likely to sit a lot of their secondary.

I was leaning over when this opened around 38 but wanted to see out the weather forecast. It now looks far less daunting than what was initially predicted - occasional wind gusts but nothing prohibitive and moderate rain. Steelers now have a downfield pass game and Mason Rudolph is playing to get paid. He's going to challenge Ravens backups. Ravens offense with Snoop Huntley - a quality back-up who is playoff tested - will still move the ball and put up at 14 (as he's done vs PIT in his career). I could honestly see both teams hitting 20+ in a desperate spot for the Steelers. I see it 20-17 and I'm not sure this drops further than it already has.

When John Harbaugh's Ravens have faced Mike Tomlin's Steelers, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS in their series. When the line on the underdog is +3.5 or higher, the underdog is 19-2 ATS! Tomlin's Steelers are 15-26 ATS as road favorites under his tenure. Pittsburgh needs to win, and the Ravens have secured the #1 seed. The narrative will be that the Ravens will take this game off. But don't forget, this is a bitter rivalry and the Ravens are a complete squad. I don't see a huge motivation edge for Pittsburgh. Ravens QB Tyler Huntley is one of the better backups in the league. I think he can beat the Steelers and play spoiler. I am going to take Ravens ML +164 as well.

The Steelers have won six of the last seven meetings against the Ravens, including a 17-10 win in Week 5. QB Lamar Jackson and other key Ravens players will rest for the contest. Pittsburgh on the other hand gets to fight for their lives to make the playoffs. More of QB Mason Rudolph for the Steelers who have now won two straight. If they win, they hang around and watch the other games with hopes of maneuvering into the playoffs. Tyler Huntley will start for Jackson while Kenny Pickett will back up Rudolph. The Steelers have gone Over in their last four games. I've seen too many 2-3 point wins in this series. Moneyline. But the Steelers take care of their part.

The Ravens will be sitting essentially their first string defense. They are not deep at pass rusher at all. This is a very low number that Rudolph has cleared easily (by 80 yards) in both his starts. This is not a Mitch Trubisky situation. Kenny Pickett went well over this in the first meeting with the Ravens when Baltimore had a healthy 1st string D on the field. This wont be a blowout to the point where all Pittsburgh does is run the ball. There will be favorable WR and TE match-ups and Rudolph is playing with confidence.

Baltimore has an elite pass defense, but most of the starters in the secondary are expected to sit, starting with Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens. Mason Rudolph has unlocked George Pickens with his downfield accuracy. Pickens has four downfield receptions in the past two games while totaling 326 receiving yards. Look for Rudolph to stay aggressive and target Pickens enough to get us Over this prop total.

Steelers will run the ball a ton here and not take too many chances with Mason Rudolph vs Baltimore's backups. Ravens have been NFL best in not allowing rushing TDS, but that's out the window now with nothing to play for here. Harris is the big back, has 3 TDs the past 2 games and they need to finishing drives for the 29th ranked RZ offense if they are going to keep the season alive past Saturday. Ravens allowing 5.2/carry since Week 10 (32nd).

John Harbaugh is playing coy in terms of whether he will rest starters with the AFC's top seed wrapped up, but it would be coaching malpractice to allow Lamar Jackson to take the field -- on a short week, no less. The Steelers have to win to have any wild card hopes and look like a different team with Mason Rudolph under center.

The outcome carries meaning for only the Steelers. They reach the postseason with a win and a little help from their friends in another games. Baltimore, by contrast, retains the No. 1 AFC seed — win, lose or draw. The Ravens under coach John Harbaugh have been in this setting before. Given that they defeated these same Steelers 28-10 while holding out QB Lamar Jackson and several other starters in the season finale, it seems likely Harbaugh would stick to that blueprint. As for the Steelers, after falling short of 30 points scored all season, they have hit the mark in the past two weeks, coinciding with coach Mike Tomlin’s promotion of Mason Rudolph to starter. 

Update: The Ravens are expected to rest their starters just like they did during Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP season. We grabbed this line at the beginning of the week based on two possibilities: 1. Jackson would actually play after that season ended in a quick exit in Baltimore's first playoff game, or 2. Tyler Huntley would start and continue to be an effective fill-in, which he has shown capable of being in the past. You also can't just rest every starter on a 53-man roster, and the Ravens defense has enough depth to make life difficult for Mason Rudolph and Co. in a road start. After an early move toward Pittsburgh, the market has backed up this play as the line is now mostly 3.