It's fair to have zero belief in the Chargers and Brandon Staley, but what am I supposed to believe about the Patriots and Bill Belichick? New England has averaged 6.5 points over the last two weeks. Sure, the defense has only allowed 10.0 points in that span, but that was New England taking advantage of bad quarterbacks. The Pats are amazingly 0-9 ATS in their losses, and if you asked me to simply pick a winner Sunday, it’s Los Angeles – even despite the travel disadvantage. Sure, I wish the line was tighter, but Keenan Allen is active and this is the definition of a must-win game for the Chargers, which frequently crush bad teams.

New England still plays solid defense despite their record and their ineffective offense. It gives them a fighting chance every weekend. I like how the Chargers defense has started to play better over the last month of the season, and has more than enough talent on that side of the ball to make this a rock fight. It's going to be a slick, rainy field with two defenses playing well.

Not much has gone right in New England this season but their run defense has certainly not been an issue as the Patriots are 1st in EPA allowed per rush, 1st in Defensive Rush Success %, and 5th in Run Stop Win Rate. Meanwhile Ekeler and the Chargers have struggled running the football nearly all season. Ekeler does not appear to be 100% and lacks his usual burst and lateral quickness. The Chargers are also down numerous pass catchers and really could use Ekeler to contribute more as a receiver out of the backfield since he’s been largely inefficient running the football.

The Patriots' passing game is a disgrace, but Rhamondre Stevenson has found his 2022 form and is in line for another heavy workload Sunday. Stevenson has gotten 21 and 20 carries the past two games. While Ezekiel Elliott is expected to play, he was limited all week with a thigh injury and should not receive more than 6-8 carries. The Chargers rank 21st in rushing efficiency defense and New England will want to limit Bailey Zappe's attempts to protect against turnovers.

With the rain we expect both teams to be conservative. New England's struggles on offense have been well documented. Ranking 28th in yards per play with a 31st scoring average of just 13.5 points per game. The Patriots defense ranks 6th in yards per play allowed and you know Belichick will be well prepared for Justin Herbert.

The Chargers cant stop the run very well, and especially against 11 Personnel with a light box and 3 WR on the field. Zeke averages 4.6/carry in those looks while Stevenson is at 3.3. Pats ran 2nd highest total of 11 runs last week averaging over 5 yds/play. Bill Belichick will run a ton, as he wont even tell you who his starting QB is, and he has no starting caliber QB. Pats have 67 carries the last two weeks and could run close to 40 times. This should be a closer split between the backs and Zeke is better fit with far lower total than Stevenson, with less juice. I am playing 50+ in alt markets. Zeke is over this easily last two weeks.

Rhamondre Steven got off to an awful start to the season after he was widely considered a potential third year breakout candidate. While he's played well his last three games this number is inflated and he's facing a Chargers run defense that isn't nearly as bad as the raw numbers reflect. The Chargers have struggled with RBs that are able to beat them with speed on the outside and Stevenson is not exactly in that mold and more of a physical runner between the tackles. Look for the Chargers to keep Stevenson in check.

Great QB with a horrendous coach against a horrendous QB(s) with a great coach. Can you imagine what Bill Belichick could do with all that talent in LA? And don't rule it out next season because Brandon Staley is 100 percent gone and seems like BB will move on. This has dipped below the magic number of 40 at a few books and seems like it's only going down with rain and generally awful weather Sunday. Your guess is as good as mine as to whom starts at QB for the Pats. Art Schlichter? Scott Zolak? Mac Grier Zappe? The Pats could go in a "Fly"-type lab and merge Mac Jones, Will Grier and Bailey Zappe and said QB would still be atrocious.

These teams are 16-4 to the under. Chargers have gone under in 8 of the last 9 games. Patriots can't score more than 17 on anyone, and that includes this pathetic Chargers D that actually showed up against Baltimore. The last six meetings between these teams have gone under. Two of the last 3 Pats games haven't hit 38 as they attempt to play without a QB. Chargers cant stop the run, and Pats will play super slow and run the ball at least 35 times. Patriots have 5 offensive TDs in their last 4 games. Pats RZ D is legit, and Chargers in NE in December won't help their scoring.