The total also has been steamed up in this one and it's hard to explain why. These are the two worst scoring teams in the NFL, combining for barely 27 points per game. It would take an offensive explosion by their meager standards or multiple defensive TDs for this to go Over.

This is just out of principle for a spread that opened at -2.5 and has seen nonstop steam on the chalk. The Patriots have won just two games this season, and just once by more than 4 points. The Giants looked much more competent in their win over the Commanders.

When the league's worst offenses square off, resulting in a seriously low total, a speed of 4.5 appears inflated. New England has exceeded 20 points scored once all season. Bill Belichick has resorted to subterfuge by not announcing his quarterback, which seems beneath him. Not sure it matters who's behind center anyway. Much has been made of the coach's 24-6 straight-up record against rookie QBs. -- and, make no mistake, Tommy DeVito is a rookie -- but this is no normal Pats team. The Giants are coming off their high-water mark of the year -- 31-19 over Washington -- and should be in more of a fighting mood than New England.

A couple of matchups to keep an eye on in this game: Belichick vs a rookie QB and Martindale vs an immobile QB. Both matchups will help keep points at a premium throughout the game. This game screams 17-13, which, helps us cash this under.

The Patriots are 7-2 under their last nine games. They scored 17 or less in eight of those nine games. Mac Jones' number are all down in his third season with the Patirots. Jones has a 6.3 yards per pass and 10 TD passes to 10 interceptions. As bad as Jones has been Bailey Zappe isn't an upgrade. The Giants are down to their 3rd-string QB Tommy Devito is below average at this point and we all know Bill Belichick owns young quarterbacks. The Giants are 8-3 to the under.

Since returning from injury in October, here are Barkley's total yardage numbers: 98, 118, 128, 113, 61, 140. The 61 stands out but it was in a blowout loss to the excellent Dallas defense. Against a middling New England unit, Barkley should once again find plenty of success and be the focal point of New York's offense.

New York comes off their second-best offensive performance behind Tommy DeVito, which isn’t saying much. Mac Jones is only 2-8 ATS this season and for a team just as bad as the Giants to be laying points on the road is a little extreme. New York’s defense should be able to keep them within striking distant to at least cover.

Say what you want about Bill Belichick, but I trust him and his rested defense to shut down Tommy DeVito. New England will win this with its running game (the Giants allow 4.8 yards per carry), so it doesn't matter much who the Pats start at quarterback. The Patriots rank second against the run (3.4 yards per carry allowed), which will put inordinate pressure on DeVito.

The Giants won a game by double digits on the road despite being sacked nine times, but I think we still have to rate them as the league's worst team with Tommy DeVito at QB. But he made enough plays against an awful Washington pass defense that there is at least some optimism he can move the ball when not facing great defenses. The Patriots rank seventh in yards per play but 31st in sack rate, so there is opportunity for the Giants to get to 13-17 points in this game. That could be enough to cover against this awful Patriots offense. At 2-8, the Pats are also one of the league's worst teams, and they shouldn't be laying 3.5 on the road against anyone.