Neither QB is worthy of fully trusting in this matchup. However, the Colts do have the ability to find the chunk play within their run game. Unfortunately, Gardner Minshew is too helter skelter passing the ball for me to trust him vs a Bill Belicheck led defensive unit. That matchup alone should be enough for the Pats in Germany.

Though only 2-7, the Belichick offense is also more menacing that the Carolina version last week that Indy held in check, and capitalized upon with a pair of pick-sixes from Kenny Moore II. We suppose this one might come down to who makes fewer mistakes between Mac Jones and Gardner Minshew; if that's the variable, we'd rather not risk it with Minshew, who had tossed five picks and also lost four fumbles (oops!) in the three games preceding the win at Charlotte. Play Patriots

Stevenson was over this last week thanks to a long TD run, but he was under it in the five prior games. So why so confident? It's the matchup, duh! The Colts have let a lead running back get at least 50 yards in 7 of 9 games this season, including each of their past three games since defensive tackle Grover Stewart got suspended. But where’s the game this week? That’s right, in Europe. We’ve seen offenses struggle to throw in these overseas games -- the only guy to put up big numbers passing this year was Josh Allen with Trevor Lawrence going over 300 yards in his second game in London after he got acclimated. The Patriots just got to Germany on Friday.

Colts slot corner Kenny Moore had two Pick-6s last week, but he also finished with eight tackles -- the sixth straight game in which he's posted six or more. Mac Jones loves to throw to Demario Douglas in the slot, which should give Moore opportunities. And if the Patriots lean on the run, Moore still could be in position to rack up tackles as he's made one third of his stops in run support. Moore is back to his 2021 Pro Bowl form, and I like him to register at least six tackles plus assists.

Taylor's snap count continues to increase weekly, reaching 74% in Week 9. He has 17 combined targets in his last four games and has surpassed this receiving total three times in that span. New England has allowed the sixth most receiving yards to running backs so a 25+ yard day from the superstar would hardly be a surprise during the game played in Germany.

The Patriots are 2-7 and seemingly in disarray. Corners Jack Jones and J.C. Jackson both missed curfew before the Commanders' game, according to reports, and got benched to start that loss. Now Jackson isn't even traveling to Germany. The Colts' beleaguered defense took a step forward in their 27-13 win in Carolina, and now faces another struggling attack. Look for another conservative approach from Gardner Minshew after his zero-turnover performance helped snap Indy's three-game skid.

The Colts did not earn their win last week, the Panthers beat themselves. Bryce Young had 2 pick sixes and a third interception. There seems to be an overreaction to the Colts offense, despite their stats being underwhelming. They had 78 yards rushing at 2.6 yards per carry, and 127 passing yards. While Mac Jones is also turnover prone, it is hard to believe the Colts will be pulling off 2 pick sixes 2 weeks in a row. As far as real ways to rely on to produce points, the Colts will still struggle here against this Patriots defense.

The Patriots fell to 2-7 with a bad home loss to the Commanders, and a depleted WR corps and defense means it's probably not getting much better anytime soon. But I think they match up well with the Colts as they bring a defense ranked second in yards per rush into this game. Forcing Gardner Minshew to throw to win is ideal, and the Pats could have success against a banged-up Colts defense that had been struggling prior to the Panthers game. The Colts offense had just 3.5 yards per play last week against a depleted Panthers defense, while the Pats had 5.2 yards per play, yet the line swung massively off the Patriots -1 lookahead. I'll fade that move and take the value here.